Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 23

Date: 11 August 2023, Friday

Location: Almeidão (Tombos)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)


	Tombense		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.8	3	2.45
	2.95	3.05	2.38
	2.96	3.09	2.69
	2.7	2.88	2.45
	2.95	3.13	2.51	Watch
	2.95	3.05	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.25)	3.03 ↑ (2.95)	2.49 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
32.1%

Draw
30.6%

Sport Recife
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

31.7%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

31.4%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	47.1%	35.3%

Tombense - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Tombense will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Recife will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe Garcia (G) 2. Kevin 3. Augusto 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 5. Bruno Silva 6. Egidio 7. Alexandre Jesus 8. Joao Pedro 9. Fernandao 10. Guilherme Santos 11. Kleiton	33. Renan (G) 12. Alisson Cassiano 35. Sabino 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 2. Ewerthon 5. Ronaldo 47. Fabio Matheus 8. Ruiz A. 46. Luciano Juba 30. Facu Labandeira 9. Vagner Love
Substitutes
19. Alex Sandro 20. Daniel Amorim 14. Djalma 16. Emerson 26. Jean (G) 17. Keke 21. Marcelinho 13. Mateus Buiate 22. Pedro Costa 15. Pierre 18. Rafinha 23. Ruan Levine	44. Chico 1. Denis (G) 11. Edinho 7. Fabinho 97. Fabricio Daniel 94. Felipe 10. Jorginho 23. Michel Lima 48. Pedro Martins 77. Peglow 13. Renzo 28. Rosales R.
Coaches
Burse J.	Moreira E.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Tombense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sport Recife is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Tombense: Daniel Amorim (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Tombense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Tombense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie B
07.08.23	Atlético Goianiense - Tombense	3:2 ✺
02.08.23	Ituano - Tombense	1:0 ✺
30.07.23	Tombense - Criciúma	2:2 ✺
22.07.23	Mirassol - Tombense	2:0 ✺
18.07.23	Tombense - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.23	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
02.08.23	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
28.07.23	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
23.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
19.07.23	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.05.23	Sport Recife - Tombense	3:2
18.08.22	Tombense - Sport Recife	1:0
06.05.22	Sport Recife - Tombense	2:0
Copa do Brasil
13.02.19	Tombense - Sport Recife	3:0

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