Match Info

Russian Cup - Regions Path - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match TV


	Torpedo Moscow		Baltika Kaliningrad

	1	X	2
	3.64	3.62	2.02
	6.51	4.08	1.61	Watch
	3.25	3.33	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↓ (6.72)	3.68 ↓ (4.08)	1.84 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
21.6%

Draw
26.2%

Baltika Kaliningrad
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.6%

24.1%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

26.3%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Torpedo Moscow's performance.

Baltika Kaliningrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baltika Kaliningrad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Torpedo Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baltika Kaliningrad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Soldatenko R. (G) 19. Baytukov R. 4. Borodin S. (C) 15. Danilkin E. 8. Galoyan A. 3. Ivankov A. 79. Kashtanov A. 5. Moskvichev V. 27. Orekhov A. 55. Stepanov D. 7. Yushin A.	81. Kukushkin I. (G) 16. Andrade K. 77. Civic E. 4. Gassama N. 14. Kovac S. 11. Kovalev Y. 69. Manelov I. 8. Mendel A. (C) 46. Obonin K. 90. Offor C. 15. Yenne T.
Substitutes
14. Burkhin E. 38. Chupayov A. 84. Churilov V. 97. Curic M. 23. Danilin K. 46. Dunay V. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 21. Lomakin A. 90. Roganovic B. 99. Shevchenko G. 73. Shitov V. 74. Volkov M. (G)	26. Belikov I. 67. Borisko M. (G) 25. Filin A. 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 5. Mourid A. 10. Petrov I. 42. Pospelov V. 19. Pryakhin S. 39. Stepanov K.
Coaches
Kononov O.	Talalaev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Mendel A. ⚽, Kovalev Y. (A),
25', Baytukov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andrade K. ↓, Filin A. ↑,
54', Galoyan A. ↓, Shitov V. ↑,
59', Civic E. ↓, Beveev M. ↑,
59', Mendel A. ↓, Mourid A. ↑,
59', Yenne T. ↓, Pryakhin S. ↑,
72', 0 - 2, Offor C. ⚽,
72', Stepanov D. ↓, Roganovic B. ↑,
73', Baytukov R. ↓, Shevchenko G. ↑,
78', Ivankov A. ↓, Churilov V. ↑,
78', Yushin A. ↓, Chupayov A. ↑,
80', Obonin K. ↓, Stepanov K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Torpedo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Baltika is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Torpedo won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
21.11.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Torpedo Moscow - Rotor	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Torpedo Moscow - Sokol Saratov	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Fakel - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
29.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Kuban-Kholding	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTLW
- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian Premier League
22.11.25	Orenburg - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Krasnodar	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
23.10.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
03.05.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	0:1
Russian Cup
16.10.24	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:4
Russian FNL
16.09.24	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1
12.03.22	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:2
05.09.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	1:1
Club Friendly
28.06.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	2:0
30.01.21	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0

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