Match Info

Date: 5 September 2022, Monday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Bobrovskiy Y. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport


	Torpedo Moscow		Rostov

	1	X	2
	5	3.85	1.61
	5.49	4.03	1.65
	5.7	4	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.4 ↑ (4.24)	3.96 ↑ (3.54)	1.63 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
17.6%

Draw
24%

Rostov
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

26.7%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

26.1%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Rostov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rostov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rostov than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rostov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.3%	18.2%	79.5%

Torpedo Moscow - Rostov Predictions

Users Predictions: Rostov will win (35 of 44 users predict this - 79.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.63% – 91.47%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Arena Khimki.

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 7).

Torpedo has the most likely position - 16 (36.66%), has project points - 22, has currently - 1, has a good chance of relegated (71%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Rostov has the most likely position - 7 (13.66%), has project points - 45, has currently - 13, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 34, small importance 26, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Torpedo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Rostov is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Rostov have a series of home games.

In this match Rostov is a favorite.

There will not play in Torpedo: Botnar V. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rostov: Kalinin I. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Rostov to win the game is with odds 1.75.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Torpedo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Torpedo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian Cup
31.08.22	Torpedo Moscow - CSKA Moscow	0:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
28.08.22	Torpedo Moscow - Krasnodar	1:4 ✺
21.08.22	Zenit - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
14.08.22	Orenburg - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
07.08.22	Torpedo Moscow - Khimki	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Rostov
Russian Cup
31.08.22	Rostov - Dynamo Moscow	2:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
28.08.22	Rostov - CSKA Moscow	0:0 ✺
20.08.22	Rostov - Sochi	2:2 ✺
14.08.22	Nizhny Novgorod - Rostov	3:4 ✺
07.08.22	Rostov - Orenburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
27.10.21	Torpedo Moscow - Rostov	2:0
Russian Premier League
20.04.15	Rostov - Torpedo Moscow	1:0
22.11.14	Torpedo Moscow - Rostov	2:1

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