Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
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Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
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Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	Wowow Live
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Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
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Slovenia	SportKlub 2
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
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Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra, TUDN, Univision
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Tottenham Hotspur		Roma

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.1	4.5	Watch
	1.68	4.2	4.6
	1.72	4.2	4.5	Watch
	1.71	4.25	4.59
	1.69	4.31	4.44	Watch
	1.7	4	4.6
	1.75	4.24	4.81
	1.72	4.25	4.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.93)	4.19 ↑ (3.25)	4.57 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Europa League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás

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Current Win Probability

Tottenham Hotspur
56.1%

Draw
22.9%

Roma
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

28.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

24.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tottenham Hotspur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tottenham Hotspur's performance.

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tottenham Hotspur than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tottenham Hotspur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	11.1%	8.9%

Tottenham Hotspur - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: Tottenham Hotspur will win (35 of 44 users predict this - 79.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.63% – 91.47%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Forster F. (G) 23. Porro P. 6. Dragusin R. 33. Davies B. 14. Gray A. 29. Sarr P. M. 30. Bentancur R. 22. Johnson B. 21. Kulusevski D. 19. Solanke D. 7. Son Heung-Min (C)	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. (C) 15. Hummels M. 5. Ndicka E. 19. Celik Z. 16. Paredes L. 17. Kone M. 3. Angelino 21. Dybala P. 11. Dovbyk A. 92. El Shaarawy S.
Substitutes
40. Austin B. (G) 15. Bergvall L. 8. Bissouma Y. 79. Hardy M. 74. King M. 10. Maddison J. 64. Olusesi C. 13. Udogie D. 16. Werner T. 41. Whiteman A. (G) 78. Williams-Barnett L.	12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 4. Cristante B. 28. Le Fee E. 89. Marin R. (G) 7. Pellegrini Lo. 61. Pisilli N. 98. Ryan M. (G) 56. Saelemaekers A. 18. Soule M. 59. Zalewski N.
Coaches
Postecoglou A.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Son Heung-Min (Pen),
20', 1 - 1, Ndicka E. ⚽, Dybala P. (A),
28', Paredes L. 🟨,
28', Kulusevski D. 🟨,
34', 2 - 1, Johnson B. ⚽, Kulusevski D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dybala P. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
65', Celik Z. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
68', Johnson B. ↓, Maddison J. ↑,
68', Sarr P. M. ↓, Bissouma Y. ↑,
69', El Shaarawy S. ↓, Saelemaekers A. ↑,
72', Bentancur R. 🟨,
77', Bentancur R. ↓, Bergvall L. ↑,
77', Son Heung-Min ↓, Werner T. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Hummels M. ⚽, Angelino (A),

Preview

Recent matches Tottenham is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Roma is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Tottenham is a favorite.

There will not play in Tottenham: Lankshear W. (Red Card) Moore M. (Illness) Odobert W. (Thigh Injury) Richarlison (Thigh Injury) Vicario G. (Broken ankle) van de Ven M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Saelemaekers A. (Ankle Injury) Shomurodov E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Tottenham: Romero C. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Roma: Hermoso M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Tottenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:5 (average 2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Tottenham won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tottenham Hotspur
English Premier League
23.11.24	Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur	0:4 ✺
10.11.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	Galatasaray - Tottenham Hotspur	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
03.11.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
30.10.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WLLWW
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Napoli - Roma	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Roma - Bologna	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	Saint-Gilloise - Roma	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
03.11.24	Verona - Roma	3:2 ✺
31.10.24	Roma - Torino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.22	Tottenham Hotspur - Roma	0:1
International Champions Cup
25.07.18	Roma - Tottenham Hotspur	1:4
25.07.17	Tottenham Hotspur - Roma	2:3

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