Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 33

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Novara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251


	Novara		Padova

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.1	1.75
	4.2	3.15	1.92
	4.45	3.14	1.92	Watch
	4.5	2.9	1.85
	4.34	3.05	1.85	Watch
	4.2	3.15	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (4)	3.08 ↓ (3.4)	1.87 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
21.1%

Draw
29.8%

Padova
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

26.2%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

25.5%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Novara - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Minelli S. (G) 26. Lorenzini F. 5. Bertoncini D. 15. Khailoti O. 10. Donadio C. 8. Di Munno A. 21. Ranieri R. (C) 99. Basso G. 72. Agyemang G. 7. Gerardini F. 9. Asencio R.	1. Fortin M. (G) 5. Perrotta M. 2. Delli Carri F. 72. Faedo C. 26. Kirwan N. (C) 7. Varas K. 6. Crisetig L. 14. Villa L. 92. Buonaiuto C. 9. Spagnoli A. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
18. Akpa-Chukwu H. 6. Anzolin M. 28. Cannavaro A. 31. Desjardins A. (G) 16. Gagliardi L. 90. Ganz S. 29. Maressa T. 12. Negri E. (G) 11. Palsson A. 25. Virisario A.	4. Belli F. 15. Bianchi N. 17. Capelli A. 11. Cretella C. 30. Favale G. 8. Fusi P. 23. Granata A. 21. Liguori M. 37. Montrone A. 31. Pirrello R. 10. Russini S. 16. Sala A. (G) 77. Tumiatti F. 19. Valente N. 12. Voltan M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Asencio R. ⚽,
24', Asencio R. ↓, Ganz S. ↑,
29', Gerardini F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Villa L. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Bertoncini D. ⚽,
53', Perrotta M. ↓, Liguori M. ↑,
55', Favale G. 🟨,
58', Kirwan N. ↓, Russini S. ↑,
59', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
65', Agyemang G. 🟨,
68', Gerardini F. ↓, Gagliardi L. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Spagnoli A. ⚽,
72', Liguori M. (Pen),
82', Varas K. ↓, Cretella C. ↑,
90', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Novara won 1.

Novara is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Padova is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Padova is a favorite.

There will not play in Novara: Calcagni R. (Red Card) Ghiringhelli L. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Novara won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:16 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Novara won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:7 (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
16.03.25	Caldiero Terme - Novara	2:0 ✺
13.03.25	Vicenza Virtus - Novara	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Novara - Giana Erminio	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Novara - Renate	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTW
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
17.03.25	Padova - Pergolettese	2:1 ✺
13.03.25	Renate - Padova	3:2 ✺
09.03.25	Padova - AlbinoLeffe	3:0 ✺
02.03.25	FeralpiSalò - Padova	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Padova - Giana Erminio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
11.11.24	Padova - Novara	2:1
28.01.24	Novara - Padova	0:3
20.09.23	Padova - Novara	2:0
26.02.23	Novara - Padova	1:3
23.10.22	Padova - Novara	1:2
Italian Serie B
15.02.14	Padova - Novara	1:0
14.09.13	Novara - Padova	1:0

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