Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: ONEOK Field (Tulsa, OK)

Referee: Kaleia M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tulsa		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.6	3.6
	1.95	3.7	3.25
	1.99	4.18	3.41
	1.93	3.74	3.51	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.4
	1.96	3.69	3.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.73)	3.7 ↓ (3.74)	3.44 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tulsa
48.1%

Draw
25%

Birmingham Legion
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.7%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

24.1%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tulsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tulsa's form might have worsened.

Birmingham Legion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tulsa than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tulsa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham Legion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tulsa - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Penaranda J. (C) 4. Pierre D. 15. Batista L. 2. Damm O. 12. Stauffer L. 26. Colli G. 5. Marcos Serrato 37. Goldthorp E. 10. Elmedkhar K. 8. Webber J. 9. Calheira T.	1. Van Oekel M. (G) 43. Suarez S. 13. Rufe J. 20. Paterson AJ 26. Daley A. 6. McIllhatton S. 14. Shashoua S. 21. Tregarthen S. 19. Martinez E. (C) 49. Travis J. 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
19. Amann T. 7. Booth A. 21. Dalou A. 39. Johnson C. (G) 22. Lukic S. 20. Seagrist P.	27. Centeno E. 57. Delgado F. (G) 5. Kos E. 11. McCartney D. 10. Preston T. 2. Turnbull S. 16. Vassell P.
Coaches
Spencer L.	Briggs M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Tregarthen S. 🟨,
24', Shashoua S. ↓, Vassell P. ↑,
32', Martinez E. 🟨,
45+5', Marcos Serrato 🟨,
45+9', Travis J. 🟨,
45+9', 1 - 0, Calheira T. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Suarez S. 🟨,
58', Elmedkhar K. 🟨,
68', Webber J. ↓, Dalou A. ↑,
68', Goldthorp E. ↓, Lukic S. ↑,
72', Martinez E. ↓, Preston T. ↑,
83', McIllhatton S. ↓, McCartney D. ↑,
83', Tregarthen S. ↓, Turnbull S. ↑,
84', Elmedkhar K. ↓, Seagrist P. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Rufe J. ⚽, McCartney D. (A),
90+1', Colli G. ↓, Amann T. ↑,
90+2', Batista L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tulsa won 1.

Tulsa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Birmingham's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tulsa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tulsa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tulsa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tulsa
USL Championship
30.08.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Tulsa	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Tulsa - Orange County SC	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Hartford Athletic - Tulsa	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Tulsa - New Mexico United	5:2 ✺
06.08.25	Monterey Bay - Tulsa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWTWW
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
30.08.25	Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion	4:4 ✺
23.08.25	Birmingham Legion - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
09.08.25	Birmingham Legion - Hartford Athletic	1:4 ✺
02.08.25	Phoenix Rising - Birmingham Legion	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
31.05.25	Tulsa - Birmingham Legion	1:2
USL Championship
04.05.24	Birmingham Legion - Tulsa	2:2
23.08.23	Tulsa - Birmingham Legion	1:3
17.03.23	Birmingham Legion - Tulsa	3:2
23.07.22	Birmingham Legion - Tulsa	0:2
19.03.22	Tulsa - Birmingham Legion	3:1
11.09.21	Tulsa - Birmingham Legion	1:1

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