Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: ONEOK Field (Tulsa, OK)

Referee: Scheer J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Tulsa		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	3.20	2.45
	2.88	3.25	2.28
	3.01	3.52	2.36
	2.65	3.34	2.55	Watch
	2.9	3.45	2.3
	2.85	3.24	2.28	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.38)	3.32 ↓ (3.46)	2.36 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tulsa
32.9%

Draw
27.8%

Lexington
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

26.7%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tulsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tulsa's form might have worsened.

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lexington's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tulsa than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tulsa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lexington, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tulsa - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Jacomen D. (G) 98. Ian 44. Sangwa J. 91. Cissoko A. (C) 15. Batista L. 12. Stauffer L. 17. Sparks B. 8. Webber J. 13. Kocevski J. 10. Elmedkhar K. 14. Dorsey L.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 23. Brown J. 5. Burks K. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
25. Clarke A. 20. Colli G. 22. Lukic S. 9. Ordonez A. 4. Pierre D. 19. Pierre N. 27. Siranga Z. 1. Tambakis A. (G)	40. Addams G. (G) 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 4. Ordonez A. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G) 20. Yosef M.
Coaches
Spencer L.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Goodrum P. 🟨,
5', Cissoko A. 🟨,
11', Dorsey L. 🟨,
16', Nick Firmino 🟨,
30', Batista L. 🟨,
30', Stauffer L. 🟨,
36', Zengue X. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Spencer L. 🟨,
57', Nick Firmino ↓, Scott T. ↑,
63', Epps M. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
63', Goodrum P. ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,
64', Elmedkhar K. ↓, Ordonez A. ↑,
64', Sangwa J. ↓, Pierre D. ↑,
67', Scott T. 🟨,
75', Ferri B. ↓, Ordonez A. ↑,
75', Zengue X. ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
77', Dorsey L. ↓, Lukic S. ↑,
82', Ian ↓, Clarke A. ↑,
82', Sparks B. ↓, Colli G. ↑,
84', Henry-Scott M. 🟨,
90+3', Molloy A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lexington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tulsa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Tulsa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tulsa
USL Championship
18.07.26	Tulsa - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Birmingham Legion - Tulsa	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
20.06.26	Tulsa - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Tulsa - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
13.06.26	Charleston Battery - Tulsa	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLWL
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
22.07.26	Lexington - Oakland Roots	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Louisville City - Lexington	4:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Lexington	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
20.06.26	Lexington - Indy Eleven	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
04.10.25	Tulsa - Lexington	3:0
18.05.25	Lexington - Tulsa	0:2

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