Match Info

Premier League - Round 24

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Ulinzi Stars		Gor Mahia

	1	X	2
	4.05	3.05	1.85
	4.25	3.13	1.81
	4.23	3.21	1.84	Watch
	4	2.88	1.85
	4.3	3.1	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (5.1)	3.07 ↓ (3.27)	1.84 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
21.6%

Draw
29.3%

Gor Mahia
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.9%

28%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

27.2%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gor Mahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gor Mahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Gor Mahia (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gor Mahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Morrison E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
69', 0 - 2, ⚽,
77', 0 - 3, ⚽,
88', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 0.

Recent form of Ulinzi Stars has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gor Mahia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Gor Mahia is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulinzi Stars won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
02.03.26	Bidco United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
26.02.26	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Ulinzi Stars - Police FC	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLTL
- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
05.03.26	Posta Rangers - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Gor Mahia - Mathare United	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Gor Mahia - Kenya CB	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	APS Bomet - Gor Mahia	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Gor Mahia - Sofapaka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
02.11.25	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
15.06.25	Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia	2:3
18.12.24	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	3:0
10.02.24	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	0:0
02.09.23	Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia	0:1
18.02.23	Ulinzi Stars - Gor Mahia	1:1
05.03.22	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	2:1

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