Match Info

K League 1 - Round 28

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Ulsan HD		FC Seoul

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.50	3.70	1.93
	3.05	3.4	2.1
	3.27	3.69	2.23
	3.39	3.62	2.03	Watch
	3.1	3.65	2.2
	3.36	3.61	2.1	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.75)	3.58 ↑ (3.3)	2.1 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
29.1%

Draw
26.2%

FC Seoul
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

26.9%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

25.7%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

FC Seoul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Seoul than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

Ulsan HD - FC Seoul Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Seoul will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Seoul: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ulsan (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.49) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 4. Seo Myung-Guan 15. Jung Seung-Hyun 19. Kim Young-Gwon (C) 33. Jang Si-Young 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 55. Oude Kotte T. 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 11. Erick Farias	25. Gu Sung-Yun (G) 16. Choi Jun 5. Al Arab Y. 37. Ros J. 22. Kim Jin-Su (C) 7. Jeong Seung-Won 42. Son J. 6. Babec H. 10. Anderson Oliveira 27. Moon Seon-Min 9. Klimala P.
Substitutes
72. Baek In-Woo 6. Bojanic D. 17. Kang Sang-Woo 8. Lee H. 16. Park Woo-jin 27. Pedrinho 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min 66. Trojak M.	17. Ahn Jae-min 19. Cheon Seong-Hoon 21. Jung Ha-won 31. Kang Hyeon-Mu (G) 24. Kim M. 20. Lee Han-Do 8. Lee Seung-Mo 88. Park Jang Han-Gyeol 66. Park Soo-Il
Coaches
Kim Hyun-seok	Kim Gi-Dong

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Jang Si-Young 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Lee H. ↑,
54', Son J. ↓, Lee Seung-Mo ↑,
69', Jung Seung-Hyun 🟨,
69', Lee Gyu-Seong ↓, Bojanic D. ↑,
76', Erick Farias ↓, Kang Sang-Woo ↑,
76', Jang Si-Young ↓, Sim Sang-Min ↑,
76', Moon Seon-Min ↓, Park Soo-Il ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Sim Sang-Min ⚽, Lee Dong-Gyeong (A),
88', Sim Sang-Min 🟨,
90+1', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Trojak M. ↑,
90+2', Klimala P. ↓, Cheon Seong-Hoon ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 1.

Ulsan has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Seoul is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Seoul is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 33:23. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Seoul ✔	31	20	5	6	58:26	32	65
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

FC Seoul - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 40.76%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
05.09.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1 ✺
26.08.26	Daejeon Citizen - Ulsan HD	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Ulsan HD	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TWLLL
- FC Seoul
South Korean K-League 1
05.09.26	FC Seoul - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Gwangju - FC Seoul	2:5 ✺
25.08.26	FC Seoul - Bucheon	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Anyang - FC Seoul	0:7 ✺
15.08.26	FC Seoul - Daejeon Citizen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	1:3
15.04.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:4
24.08.25	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	3:2
20.07.25	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	1:0
05.04.25	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	0:0
10.11.24	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	1:1
13.07.24	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:0

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