Match Info

K League 1 - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Incheon United		Gimcheon Sangmu

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.3	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.25
	2.15	3	3.25
	2.28	3.23	3.66
	2.14	3.16	3.57	Watch
	2.2	3.15	3.55
	2.18	3.14	3.63	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.07)	3.12 ↓ (3.27)	3.44 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
42.8%

Draw
30%

Gimcheon Sangmu
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.4%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

28.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Gimcheon Sangmu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Incheon will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Incheon: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 4. Kim Gun-Hee 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 15. Seo Jae-Min 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 11. Gerso 72. Lee Chung-Yong 99. Ferrier M.	1. Baek Jong-beom (G) 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 45. Byeon Jun-Soo 26. Lee Jung-Taek (C) 3. Park Cheol-Woo 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 56. Lee K. 55. Park T. 17. Kim Joo-Chan 8. Kim Yi-Seok 57. Jung Jae-Min
Substitutes
13. Choi Seung-gu 23. Jeong Chi-In 17. Kim Seong-Min 30. Kim Young-whan 3. Lee Sang-Gi 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 9. Mugosa S. 20. Park Kyung-sub 8. Undabarrena I.	42. Hong Si-Hoo 48. Hong Yun-Sang 10. Jeon Byung-Kwan 21. Kim In-Gyun 9. Lee G. 6. Lee Soo-Bin 15. Lim Dug-Keun 37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) 14. Park Se-Jin
Coaches
Yoon Jong-Hwan	Joo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Park T. 🟨,
39', Lee Ju-Yong 🟨,
40', Lee K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kim Joo-Chan ↓, Lee G. ↑,
46', Jung Jae-Min ↓, Hong Yun-Sang ↑,
55', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
55', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Mugosa S. ↑,
63', Kim Yi-Seok ↓, Park Se-Jin ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Mugosa S. ⚽, Ferrier M. (A),
79', Mugosa S. 🟨,
79', Go Jae-Hyeon ↓, Kim In-Gyun ↑,
84', Park T. ↓, Lee Soo-Bin ↑,
86', Lee Myoung-Joo ↓, Kim Young-whan ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Park Se-Jin ⚽, Park Cheol-Woo (A),
90', Gerso ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,
90', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Jeong Chi-In ↑,
90+6', Lee Jung-Taek 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 3.

In recent matches, Incheon has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gimcheon Sangmu is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Incheon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Incheon won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
02.08.26	Jeju - Incheon United	3:3 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gimpo - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Incheon United - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TLTWW
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
08.08.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - FC Seoul	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Pohang Steelers - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Suwon	2:1 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
25.07.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Daejeon Citizen	3:2 ✺
22.07.26	Gwangju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
09.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	0:3
05.04.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1
15.09.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	2:0
05.07.24	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1
South Korean Cup
19.06.24	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:0 penalties
South Korean K-League 1
05.05.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	2:2
18.09.22	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	1:0

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