Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 1

Date: 18 September 2024, Wednesday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports Asian Cup 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Nova Sport, Triller TV+
China	iQIYI, Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Germany	Sport 1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go
Montenegro	SportKlub 1, SportKlub
North-macedonia	SportKlub
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball app, Sport 1 Baltic


	Ulsan HD		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.7	3.2
	2.05	3.6	3.3
	2.06	3.69	3.38
	2.02	3.77	3.28	Watch
	2	3.6	3.1	Watch
	2.08	3.75	3.3	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.19)	3.67 ↑ (3.57)	3.27 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
45.8%

Draw
25.5%

Kawasaki Frontale
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

25.6%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

23.9%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	30%	0%

Ulsan HD - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulsan: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 20. Hwang Seok-Ho 18. Joo Min-Kyu (C) 32. Jung Woo-Young 26. Kim Min-Jun 10. Kim Min-Woo 19. Kim Young-Gwon 8. Lee Gyu-Seong 13. Lee Myung-Jae 95. Matheus Sales 73. Yun Il-Lok	1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 19. Kawahara S. 11. Kobayashi Y. 23. Marcinho 13. Miura S. 5. Sasaki A. 30. Segawa Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 2. Takai K. 14. Wakizaka Y. (C) 31. Wermeskerken S. V.
Substitutes
9. Arabidze G. 6. Bojanic D. 31. Esaka A. 28. Jang See-Young 1. Jo Su-Huk (G) 4. Kim Kee-Hee 7. Ko Seung-Beom 27. Lee Chung-Yong 5. Lim Jong-Eun 17. Ludwigson G. 2. Sim Sang-Min 99. Yago Caju	9. Erison 22. Hayasaka Y. (G) 44. Haydar C. 41. Ienaga A. 34. Kota Y. 35. Maruyama Y. 10. Oshima R. 17. Tono D. 20. Yamada S. 98. Yamaguchi L. (G) 77. Yamamoto Y. 26. Yamauchi H.
Coaches
Kim P.	Oniki T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Matheus Sales 🟨,
41', Yun Il-Lok 🟨,
42', Miura S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lee Gyu-Seong ↓, Ludwigson G. ↑,
46', Kim Min-Woo ↓, Arabidze G. ↑,
46', Kim Min-Jun ↓, Esaka A. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Marcinho ⚽, Sasaki A. (A),
61', Matheus Sales ↓, Ko Seung-Beom ↑,
69', Wakizaka Y. ↓, Tono D. ↑,
69', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Yamada S. ↑,
75', Segawa Y. ↓, Oshima R. ↑,
75', Marcinho ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
75', Joo Min-Kyu ↓, Yago Caju ↑,
84', Tono D. 🟨,
90', Wermeskerken S. V. ↓, Maruyama Y. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ulsan won 2.

Ulsan in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Kawasaki is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ulsan could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ulsan will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Ulsan won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Ulsan won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
13.09.24	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	2:0 ✺
31.08.24	Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers	5:4 ✺
South Korean Cup
28.08.24	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
25.08.24	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	0:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
21.08.24	Gwangju - Ulsan HD	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWTWW
- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
13.09.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
08.09.24	Ventforet Kofu - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
04.09.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Ventforet Kofu	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.09.24	Consadole Sapporo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
12.12.23	Ulsan HD - Kawasaki Frontale	2:2
03.10.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Ulsan HD	1:0
27.04.22	Ulsan HD - Kawasaki Frontale	3:2
15.04.22	Kawasaki Frontale - Ulsan HD	1:1
14.09.21	Ulsan HD - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 penalties
23.04.19	Kawasaki Frontale - Ulsan HD	2:2
10.04.19	Ulsan HD - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0

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