The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Kawasaki Frontale 67.2%
Draw 19%
Sagan Tosu 13.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
63.9%
20.1%
16%
Our Initial ML Estimation
46.7%
14.7%
21.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kawasaki Frontale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-20.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kawasaki Frontale that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+8.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sagan Tosu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
70.6%
11.8%
17.6%
Kawasaki Frontale - Sagan Tosu Predictions
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Kawasaki will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Tosu will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 48.9% โ 92.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 31. Wermeskerken S. V. 5. Sasaki A. 44. Haydar C. 8. Tachibanada K. 19. Kawahara S. 10. Oshima R. 41. Ienaga A. 14. Wakizaka Y. 17. Tono D. 9. Erison
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 3. Kimura S. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 33. Nishiya K. 24. Kubo T. 8. Nakahara H. 6. Fukuta A. 27. Narahara Y. 22. Togashi C. 18. Hino S.
Substitutes
11. Kobayashi Y. 23. Marcinho 13. Miura S. 30. Segawa Y. 2. Takai K. 20. Yamada S. 98. Yamaguchi L. (G)
21. Horigome Y. 4. Imazu Y. 55. Kiyotake H. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 77. Slivka V. 37. Terayama T. 2. Yamazaki K.
Coaches
Oniki T.
Kitani K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Tachibanada K. ⚽, Oshima R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Erison ↓, Yamada S. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Kubo T. ⚽, Togashi C. (A),
60', Wermeskerken S. V. ↓, Miura S. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Ienaga A. ⚽,
62', Hino S. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
69', Wakizaka Y. ↓, Marcinho ↑,
69', Oshima R. ↓, Takai K. ↑,
75', Narahara Y. ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
75', Nakahara H. ↓, Horigome Y. ↑,
81', Tono D. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Kiyotake H. (Pen),
90+2', Kim Tae-Hyeon 🟨,
90+9', Slivka V. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
90+9', Sasaki A. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
90+10', 3 - 2, Yamada S. ⚽,
Preview
This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Kawasaki won 3.
Kawasaki is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Tosu has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Tosu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Kawasaki is indisputable favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Kawasaki won 9 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24-17.
Including matches at home between the teams Kawasaki won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.
China
Japan
Watch
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Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 
Wermeskerken S. V. 
Haydar C. 
Erison 
Slivka V. 
