Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 9

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Umea Energi Arena (Umea)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Umeå		Karlstad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.15
	2.92	3.5	2.15	Watch
	2.94	3.73	2.13
	3.01	3.92	2.07	Watch
	2.91	3.54	2.11	Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.51)	3.6 ↑ (3.45)	2.14 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umeå
31.9%

Draw
25.4%

Karlstad
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

26.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

26%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umeå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Karlstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karlstad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umeå than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlstad than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Umeå - Karlstad Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Umeå will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Karlstad will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Pihlblad L. (G) 4. Bangala D. 16. Bawa Z. 14. Cederblad E. 26. Ekman D. 33. Essombe Mambingo J. 8. Godwin F. 9. Hadad R. 2. Linden N. 6. Lindmark S. (C) 11. Olawore E.	1. Karlsson M. (G) 2. Beko S. 11. Bengtsson J. 28. Djerlek A. 21. Gustafsson K. 14. Hook I. 12. Miguel W. 24. Nfansu D. 19. Nilsson King E. (C) 23. Rhose L. 6. Zurmati S.
Substitutes
17. Forsman S. 5. Hakansson N. 20. Hassan H. 24. Johansson V. 30. Remahl L. (G) 27. Rhodin F.	26. Alfonsi D. 10. Alvers O. 9. Carstrom J. 13. Henareh D. (G) 17. Jatta N. 22. Kack Ofordu K. 16. Modou F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Gustafsson K. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Zurmati S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Cederblad E. ↓, Rhodin F. ↑,
58', Beko S. 🟥,
60', Bengtsson J. ↓, Jatta N. ↑,
65', Miguel W. ↓, Kack Ofordu K. ↑,
81', Essombe Mambingo J. 🟨,
81', Nilsson King E. 🟨,
83', Bangala D. ↓, Forsman S. ↑,
89', Nfansu D. ↓, Carstrom J. ↑,
90', Linden N. ↓, Hassan H. ↑,
90+6', 0 - 2, Alfonsi D. ⚽, Kack Ofordu K. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umeå won 3.

Umeå has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Karlstad is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Umeå won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Umeå won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Karlstad	25	11	8	6	37:25	12	41
9	Umea FC	25	9	5	11	34:41	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umeå FC
Swedish Division 1 Norra
17.05.26	FBK Karlstad - Umeå	1:1 ✺
14.05.26	Assyriska Föreningen - Umeå	1:5 ✺
09.05.26	Umeå - Gefle	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Umeå - Karlberg	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Stockholm Internazionale - Umeå	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWTWL
- IF Karlstad
Swedish Division 1 Norra
17.05.26	Karlstad - Vasalund	5:0 ✺
14.05.26	Karlstad - Stocksund	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Karlberg - Karlstad	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Karlstad - Hammarby TFF	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	AFC Eskilstuna - Karlstad	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Svenska Cupen
19.08.25	Karlstad - Umeå	2:1
Swedish Division 1 Norra
26.10.24	Karlstad - Umeå	3:4
14.04.24	Umeå - Karlstad	5:2
16.09.23	Karlstad - Umeå	2:2
21.05.23	Umeå - Karlstad	3:0
30.10.22	Umeå - Karlstad	1:1
30.07.22	Karlstad - Umeå	1:0

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