Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 18

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Unión Magdalena		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.95	Watch
	4.25	3.25	1.88	Watch
	3.48	3.30	2.02	Watch
	4.06	3.24	1.93	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.94 ↑ (3.48)	3.26 ↓ (3.3)	1.94 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
23.6%

Draw
28.5%

Deportes Tolima
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

27.9%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

26.8%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	3.6%	85.7%

Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportes Tolima will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mattalia J. (G) 27. Lerma J. 15. Urrego Hector 18. Molina F. 26. Tello J. 28. Mercado J. 24. Cantillo F. 10. Sarmiento J. 80. Hinojosa R. 9. Iguaran C. 21. Marquez R. (C)	22. Fiermarin C. (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 17. Torres M. 5. Mera J. 33. Velasquez S. 15. Nieto J. (C) 80. Rovira B. 7. Gonzalez J. 19. Torres Patino J. P. 13. Gonzalez M. 24. Parra Osorio A.
Substitutes
8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 16. Congo J. 29. Contreras J. 20. Giraldo J. 11. Martinez M. 4. Murillo D. 6. Ortiz D. 14. Pinto J. 12. Tasso M. (G)	32. Guzman S. 20. Hernandez J. 11. Lencina G. 27. Martinez M. 28. Moreno Y. 35. Neto Volpi (G) 42. Quinones J. 6. Trujillo C. 8. Valencia E.
Coaches
Silva C.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Parra Osorio A. (Pen),
36', Urrego Hector 🟥,
41', Iguaran C. ↓, Ortiz D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gonzalez M. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Torres Patino J. P. ⚽,
56', 0 - 2, Parra Osorio A. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
64', Hinojosa R. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
64', Mercado J. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
68', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
68', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
76', Nieto J. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
76', Rovira B. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
80', Marquez R. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
80', Cantillo F. ↓, Murillo D. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Deportes Tolima might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
25.10.25	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Envigado	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWT
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
25.10.25	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Cali	2:1 ✺
20.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.05.25	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	3:1
27.10.23	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	2:1
13.05.23	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	1:1
18.07.22	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	2:1
31.01.22	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	2:1
14.09.19	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	1:2
23.03.19	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	1:0

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