Match Info

Date: 29 April 2022, Friday


	Union Berlin		Greuther Fürth

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.75	13	Watch
	1.28	5.5	11.5	Watch
	1.24	5.8	14
	1.25	5.4	13
	1.25	6.01	15.44
	1.25	5.5	13	Watch
	1.27	6.15	13.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.41)	5.73 ↑ (4.63)	13.31 ↑ (8.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
76.1%

Draw
16.7%

Greuther Fürth
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

20.5%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

19.9%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Union Berlin's performance.

Greuther Fürth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Union Berlin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greuther Fürth than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.5%	4.1%	13.4%

Union Berlin - Greuther Fürth Predictions

Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (80 of 97 users predict this - 82.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.9% – 90.04%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Union Berlin has the most likely position - 6 (34.39%), has project points - 55, has currently - 50, has not chance of relegated, has a small chance of qualify for ucl (7%), has not chance of win league.

Fürth has the most likely position - 18 (100%), has project points - 19, has currently - 17, was already of relegated.

This event has quality 60, small importance 14, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 2.

Union Berlin is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fürth is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fürth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Union Berlin is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Union Berlin won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
23.04.22	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
20.04.22	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.04.22	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:0 ✺
09.04.22	Hertha Berlin - Union Berlin	1:4 ✺
01.04.22	Union Berlin - Köln	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 WLWWW
- Greuther Fürth
German Bundesliga
23.04.22	Greuther Fürth - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4 ✺
17.04.22	Hoffenheim - Greuther Fürth	0:0 ✺
09.04.22	Greuther Fürth - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:2 ✺
02.04.22	Eintracht Frankfurt - Greuther Fürth	0:0 ✺
19.03.22	Greuther Fürth - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
12.12.21	Greuther Fürth - Union Berlin	1:0
German 2 Bundesliga
20.04.19	Greuther Fürth - Union Berlin	1:1
11.11.18	Union Berlin - Greuther Fürth	4:0
01.04.18	Greuther Fürth - Union Berlin	2:1
21.10.17	Union Berlin - Greuther Fürth	3:1
21.05.17	Greuther Fürth - Union Berlin	1:2
16.12.16	Union Berlin - Greuther Fürth	1:1

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