Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Claro Arena (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	Universidad Católica		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.87	3.25	2.4
	2.92	2.98	2.52	Watch
	3.02	3.12	2.63
	3.1	3.16	2.41
	2.8	2.9	2.5	Watch
	2.92	3.12	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.18)	3.09 ↓ (3.27)	2.51 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica
32.1%

Draw
30.5%

Cruzeiro
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

29.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28.6%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernedo V. (G) 6. Arancibia S. 19. Ampuero B. 26. Diaz J. 3. Mena E. 20. Valencia J. 11. Montes C. 8. Zuqui F. 15. Cuevas C. 7. Giani J. 9. Zampedri F. (C)	81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. (C) 11. Gerson 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 88. Christian 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
13. Canales A. 28. Cerezo B. 25. Corral D. 5. Farias A. 22. Gomez M. 2. Gonzalez D. 14. Martinez J. A. 17. Medel G. 27. Melo D. (G) 10. Palavecino M. 18. Rossel J. 44. Salas J.	91. Chico 43. Joao Marcelo 2. Kaua Moraes 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 31. Matheus Cunha (G) 8. Matheus Henrique 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 94. Wanderson 12. William Furtado
Coaches
Garnero D.	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Giani J. 🟨,
21', Artur Jorge 🟨,
29', Kaiki 🟨,
37', Romero L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Arroyo K. 🟥,
63', Zuqui F. ↓, Medel G. ↑,
63', Mena E. ↓, Martinez J. A. ↑,
63', Montes C. ↓, Palavecino M. ↑,
66', Palavecino M. 🟨,
78', Romero L. ↓, Kenji ↑,
78', Christian ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,

Preview

Uni Católica has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruzeiro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cruzeiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Uni Católica has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Uni Católica: Asta-Buruaga T. (Inactive) Sekgota J. (Inactive) Valencia D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Kaua Prates (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Uni Católica: Giani J. (Injury) L’Huillier N. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Cruzeiro: 5.59% U. Catolica: 0.99%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica
Chilean Copa de la Liga
03.05.26	Universidad de Concepción - Universidad Católica	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
25.04.26	Universidad de Chile - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Universidad Católica - Unión La Calera	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TWLLW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Remo - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Goiás - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:2
Copa Sudamericana
30.05.24	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:0
04.04.24	Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro	0:0

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