Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 23

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Técnico Universitario

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.90	7.00	Watch
	1.44	4.00	5.75
	1.46	4.10	6.50	Watch
	1.48	4.36	7.03
	1.53	4.07	6.13	Watch
	1.48	4.05	6.75
	1.47	4.13	6.69	Watch
	1.44	4.10	6.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.46)	4.09 ↓ (4.2)	6.53 ↑ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
63.1%

Draw
22.7%

Técnico Universitario
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

22.1%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

21.1%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Técnico Universitario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Técnico Universitario Predictions

Users Predictions: Universidad Católica del Ecuador will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 24. Nazareno D. 33. Canga L. 4. Jhon Chancellor 30. Mejia E. 15. Moreno L. 10. Martinez F. (C) 9. Londono A. 23. Rodriguez A. 32. Alonso M. 7. Fajardo J.	1. Razzeto S. (C) 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 53. Chilla R. 13. Anaya J. 5. Mena S. 4. Cordova 10. Johan Bocanegra 70. Castano M. 85. Arce Y. 15. Castillo F. 9. Guardia H.
Substitutes
29. Anangono G. 5. Cacciabue J. 20. Chala J. 8. Clavijo E. 1. Cueva L. (G) 28. Diaz M. 37. Medina C. 14. Mina J. 18. Palacios B. 19. Sevillano M. 17. Troya R. 44. Valencia E. 26. Yanez S.	30. Arce K. 11. Arteaga C. 16. Caicedo J. 90. Caicedo W. 67. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 19. Castillo A. 25. Delgado B. 60. Freire S. 77. Garcia C. 12. Morales A. (G) 6. Torres Nazareno L. B.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Redin B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
5', Cordova 🟨,
7', 1 - 0, Fajardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
12', 2 - 0, Chilla R. (Own goal),
16', Arce Y. 🟨,
34', 3 - 0, Fajardo J. ⚽, Nazareno D. (A),
43', Chilla R. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
43', Arce Y. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
44', Mena S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mejia E. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
55', 4 - 0, Fajardo J. ⚽, Londono A. (A),
61', Castano M. ↓, Arce K. ↑,
61', Johan Bocanegra ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
64', Martinez F. ↓, Cacciabue J. ↑,
64', Fajardo J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
64', Rodriguez A. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
74', Moreno L. ↓, Troya R. ↑,
76', Cordova ↓, Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↑,
78', Anaya J. 🟨,
90', 5 - 0, Londono A. ⚽, Jhon Chancellor (A),
90+1', Mena S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 3.

Uni Católica is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Técnico Univ has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Uni Católica is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 2.2:1).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.6%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.07.26	Guayaquil City - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0 ✺
21.07.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
10.07.26	Leones del Norte - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWWL
- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.07.26	Técnico Universitario - Manta	1:0 ✺
22.07.26	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	3:0 ✺
19.07.26	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
15.07.26	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
10.07.26	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2
24.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Técnico Universitario	2:0
03.05.25	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1
04.11.24	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:0
Ecuadorian Copa
19.09.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Técnico Universitario	3:2 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.05.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Técnico Universitario	3:2
05.08.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Técnico Universitario	0:0

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