Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo)

Referee: Espinoza F. (Arg)


	Universidad César Vallejo		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2.05
	3.55	3.2	2.14
	3.75	3.42	2.06
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.72	3.32	2.04	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (2.75)	3.29 ↑ (3.25)	2.06 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad César Vallejo
26.1%

Draw
28.5%

LDU Quito
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

28.4%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.2%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad César Vallejo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad César Vallejo's form might have worsened.

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting LDU Quito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad César Vallejo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad César Vallejo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for LDU Quito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Universidad César Vallejo - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches César Vallejo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

LDU Quito is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

LDU Quito could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently César Vallejo have a series of home games.

LDU Quito will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad César Vallejo
Peruvian Liga 1
31.03.23	ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
25.03.23	Universidad César Vallejo - Sport Huancayo	0:2 ✺
19.03.23	Universidad César Vallejo - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.03.23	Universidad César Vallejo - Escuela Municipal Binacional	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
04.03.23	Universidad César Vallejo - Carlos A. Mannucci	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.03.23	LDU Quito - Gualaceo	6:1 ✺
19.03.23	El Nacional - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.03.23	LDU Quito - Delfín	4:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.03.23	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
24.02.23	Deportivo Cuenca - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWTL

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