Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 23

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Universidad de Concepción		Deportes Recoleta

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.45
	2.1	3.39	3.5
	2.45	2.99	3.01	Watch
	2	3	3.7
	2.05	3.26	3.47	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.15)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	3.4 (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Concepción
43.8%

Draw
29.1%

Deportes Recoleta
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

29.2%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

28.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Deportes Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Concepción than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Recoleta than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Uni de Concepción will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Recoleta will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni de Concepción: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Universidad de Concepción will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Campestrini C. (G) 4. Gonzalez O. (C) 14. Medina C. 15. Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 18. Ubal B. 10. Fuentealba J. 16. Ogaz B. 22. Rojas L. 9. Levato M. 11. Gonzalez I. 25. Salgado H.	22. Vargas J. (G) 2. Retamal V. 5. Hernandez A. 14. Lara I. 18. Cepeda C. 8. Martin F. (C) 10. Arguinarena M. 17. Carvajal N. 16. Salazar D. 20. Flores J. 37. Valdes B.
Substitutes
3. Meza I. 7. Molina S. 5. Mussis F. 19. Olivares Alvarez R. I. 8. Romo J. 30. Saez B. 13. Sanhueza J. (G)	12. Alvarado F. 30. Arriagada G. 7. Cisterna J. 21. Marin C. 13. Narr J. (G) 19. Salinas Aguilar O. 26. Vasquez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Levato M. 🟨,
15', Martin F. 🟨,
19', Hernandez A. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Levato M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Valdes B. ↓, Cisterna J. ↑,
61', Gonzalez I. 🟨,
64', Rojas L. 🟨,
64', Martin F. ↓, Salinas Aguilar O. ↑,
69', Rojas L. ↓, Romo J. ↑,
69', Gonzalez I. ↓, Molina S. ↑,
70', Arguinarena M. ↓, Alvarado F. ↑,
85', Fuentealba J. ↓, Meza I. ↑,
86', Cisterna J. 🟨,
88', Flores J. ↓, Vasquez V. ↑,
90+4', Salgado H. ↓, Olivares Alvarez R. I. ↑,
90+7', Hernandez A. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni de Concepción won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
24.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Universidad de Concepción	1:4 ✺
15.08.25	Universidad de Concepción - San Marcos de Arica	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Universidad de Concepción	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	San Luis de Quillota - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Universidad de Concepción - Cobreloa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWLL
- Deportes Recoleta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
23.08.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Wanderers	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Recoleta	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Deportes Recoleta - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
01.08.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Recoleta	0:2 ✺
25.07.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Concepción	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
26.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	1:0
12.08.24	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	5:0
31.03.24	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	0:2
14.07.23	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	1:1
28.02.23	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	2:1
18.07.22	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	0:0
03.03.22	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	0:0

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