Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2


	Universitario de Deportes		Junior Barranquilla

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4.2	Watch
	2	3.1	3.8
	1.98	3.25	3.95
	2	3.34	4.3
	1.97	3.34	4.29
	1.95	3.2	3.6
	1.93	3.36	4.15	Watch
	1.93	3.25	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.2)	3.27 ↑ (3.23)	4.03 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
47.9%

Draw
28.8%

Junior Barranquilla
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.9%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universitario de Deportes's performance.

Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Junior Barranquilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Universitario de Deportes - Junior Barranquilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Junior will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni de Deportes: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 29. Corzo A. 18. Urena R. 24. Polo A. 16. Perez M. 17. Concha J. 34. Portocarrero S. 19. Flores E. 20. Valera A.	77. Mele S. (G) 18. Olivera E. 12. Fuentes G. 28. Pena J. 3. Herrera E. 6. Moreno D. 24. Cantillo V. 88. Castrillon B. 8. Chara Y. 99. Enamorado J. 70. Bacca C.
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 14. Bolivar J. 27. Cabanillas N. 7. Celi Y. 35. Dorregaray D. 30. Guzman P. 23. Murrugarra J. 33. Olivares C. 31. Rojas A. 21. Romero D. (G) 2. Saravia M. 39. Villanueva C.	7. Berrio L. 19. Cantillo C. 25. Ceballos B. 80. Hinojosa R. 27. Johan Bocanegra 30. Martinez J. (G) 14. Martinez Yepez H. E. 2. Mena Posada H. H. 21. Pacheco W. 17. Perez M. 23. Rodriguez S. 13. Velez Carey J. J.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Reyes A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Castrillon B. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Flores E. ⚽, Polo A. (A),
30', Britos S. 🟨,
30', Enamorado J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Enamorado J. ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
67', Concha J. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
68', Flores E. 🟨,
74', Valera A. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
74', Flores E. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
75', Castrillon B. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
75', Bacca C. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
81', Chara Y. ↓, Ceballos B. ↑,
81', Portocarrero S. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
82', Perez M. ↓, Celi Y. ↑,
89', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Junior could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Universitario de Deportes have a series of guest games.

Universitario de Deportes will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Universitario de Deportes won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.24	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
28.04.24	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	6:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Universitario de Deportes	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Sport Boys - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLWW
- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Primera A
04.05.24	Junior Barranquilla - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
28.04.24	Deportivo Cali - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Junior Barranquilla - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.04.24	Junior Barranquilla - Once Caldas	1:0 ✺
17.04.24	Millonarios - Junior Barranquilla	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Junior Barranquilla - Universitario de Deportes	1:1

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