Match Info

J1 League - Round 5

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.57	Watch
	2.85	3.30	2.37
	2.78	3.15	2.45	Watch
	2.82	3.42	2.64
	2.92	3.44	2.38	Watch
	2.75	3.35	2.6
	2.76	3.22	2.64	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3.35)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	2.53 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
33.8%

Draw
28.8%

Gamba Osaka
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

27.9%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

27.7%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in V-Varen Nagasaki's performance.

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gamba Osaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with V-Varen Nagasaki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gamba Osaka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

V Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.96) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Gamba Osaka will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 31. Doi K. 50. Shindo R. 22. Onaga H. 3. Sekiguchi M. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 24. Yamada R. 17. Takahata K. 41. Hasegawa M. 8. Iwasaki Y. 9. Thiago	22. Ichimori J. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 67. Sasaki S. 21. Hatsuse R. 16. Suzuki T. 13. Abe S. 20. Adams E. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 37. Nakatsumi N.
Substitutes
11. Campbell N. 21. Diego Pituca 6. Egawa Y. 13. Hatano G. (G) 39. Kou R. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 7. Yasuda K. 23. Yoneda S.	18. Araki R. (G) 48. Fujimoto Y. 2. Fukuoka S. 23. Hummet D. 11. Jebali I. 47. Nakano S. 60. Okamoto A. 35. Tono T. 32. Yoshihara Y.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Myojin T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Hatsuse R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Takahata K. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
46', Kurata S. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
46', Nakatsumi N. ↓, Hummet D. ↑,
50', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
61', Yamaguchi H. 🟨,
66', Doi K. 🟨,
66', Thiago ↓, Yasuda K. ↑,
66', Yamada R. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
68', Suzuki T. ↓, Yoshihara Y. ↑,
75', Doi K. ↓, Egawa Y. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Yasuda K. ⚽,
82', Hatsuse R. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Yamaguchi H. (A),
88', Sasaki S. ↓, Okamoto A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Nakatani S. (A),
90+4', 2 - 2, Jebali I. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Gamba Osaka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Handa R. (Knee Injury) Juanpe (Muscle Injury) Kishimoto T. (Red Card) Miura G. (Inactive) Okunuki K. (Inactive) Welton (Inactive) Yokoi Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Gamba Osaka: 0.71% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ehime	3:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
21.08.26	Kashiwa Reysol - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLLW
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Gamba Osaka - Reilac Shiga	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Mito HollyHock - Gamba Osaka	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
11.08.26	Gangwon - Gamba Osaka	0:1 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
25.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:2 penalties
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2
Japan J League Cup
26.06.19	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:2
19.06.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:4
Japan J1 League
24.11.18	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
14.04.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	3:0
Japan J2 League
01.09.13	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2

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