Match Info

J2 League - Round 26

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3	3.1	2.1
	3.35	3.05	2.15	Watch
	3.62	3.3	2.17
	3.91	3.28	1.97	Watch
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.37	3.13	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.3)	3.15 ↓ (3.32)	2.12 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
27%

Draw
29.3%

V-Varen Nagasaki
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

28%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.8%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Sagan Tosu - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 3 - 25%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): V-Varen Nagasaki will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 30. Kimoto Y. 32. Ogawa S. 5. Nagasawa S. 16. Nishizawa K. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 77. Slivka V. 34. Yamada H.	21. Goto M. (G) 29. Arai I. 4. Dudu Giusti 48. Teruyama H. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. 8. Diego Pituca 50. Onaga H. 10. Matheus Jesus 34. Matsumoto T. 9. Juanma Delgado
Substitutes
18. Hino S. 23. Kitajima F. 2. Matsumoto N. 33. Nishiya K. 15. Sakai N. 14. Sakaiya K. 47. Shinkawa S. 19. Suzuki D. 35. Uchiyama K. (G)	31. Harada G. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 20. Nakamura K. 19. Sawada T. 3. Sekiguchi M. 17. Takahata K. 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Juanma Delgado (A),
45+4', 1 - 1, Yamada H. ⚽, Arai H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Kimoto Y. 🟨,
54', Slivka V. ↓, Hino S. ↑,
60', Matsumoto T. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
60', Juanma Delgado ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
62', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
62', Kimoto Y. ↓, Kitajima F. ↑,
67', Teruyama H. ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
74', Sakurai T. ↓, Matsumoto N. ↑,
74', Nishizawa K. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Yoneda S. (A),
90+5', Diego Pituca ↓, Yamada R. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

V-Varen Nagasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tosu has had a series of away games.

V-Varen Nagasaki might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tosu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
10.08.25	Ehime - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Consadole Sapporo - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	JEF United Chiba - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLLWW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
09.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Consadole Sapporo	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Vegalta Sendai	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Iwaki - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
13.04.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	0:2
Japan J1 League
04.11.18	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
Japan J League Cup
09.05.18	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
04.04.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	3:2
Japan J1 League
03.03.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	2:2

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