Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 34

Date: 12 November 2023, Sunday


	Vasco da Gama		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.45	4	8	Watch
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.49	4.49	7.4
	1.5	4.49	7.11
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.46	4.4	6.65	Watch
	1.44	4.3	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.75)	4.33 ↑ (3.54)	7.09 ↑ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
64.9%

Draw
21.8%

América Mineiro
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.5%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

25.7%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Vasco da Gama - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). América MG will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Maicon 17. Medel G. (C) 6. Lucas Piton 23. Ze Gabriel 21. Praxedes 18. Paulinho 11. Gabriel Pec 99. Vegetti P. 7. Alex Teixeira	12. Jori (G) 20. Daniel Borges 18. Cesar J. 45. Ricardo Silva 6. Marlon 21. Lucas Kal 8. Juninho (C) 5. Emmanuel Martinez 11. Felipe Azevedo 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 37. Everaldo
Substitutes
88. Cauan Barros 9. Ferreira S. 97. Ivan (G) 8. Jair 3. Leo 85. Mateus Carvalho 10. Payet D. 2. Puma Rodriguez 30. Robson Bambu 31. Rossi 70. Serginho 44. Ze Vitor	44. Adyson 16. Ale 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 33. Eder Ferreira 3. Iago Maidana 25. Marcinho 10. Martin Benitez 36. Mateus Henrique 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 23. Mendez J. 78. Renato Marques 9. Wellington Paulista
Coaches
Diaz R.	Giacomini D.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Recent matches Vasco is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

América MG is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Vasco is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: Capasso M. (Injury) Patrick de Lucca (Knee Injury) Rossi (Injury)

There will not play in América MG: Aloisio (Injury) Cazares (Injury) Matheusinho (Injury) Nicolas Vichiatto (Injury) Rodrigo Varanda (Injury) Rodriguinho (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
06.11.23	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
02.11.23	Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
29.10.23	Goiás - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
26.10.23	Vasco da Gama - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
22.10.23	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWTLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.23	América Mineiro - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
04.11.23	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
01.11.23	Internacional RS - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
28.10.23	América Mineiro - Grêmio	3:4 ✺
25.10.23	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.09.23	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	0:1
06.09.18	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:1
05.05.18	Vasco da Gama - América Mineiro	4:1
Brazilian Serie B
06.09.14	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:3
19.04.14	Vasco da Gama - América Mineiro	1:1

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