Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vasco da Gama		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.5	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.1	3.45	3.9
	1.99	3.4	3.99	Watch
	2	3.2	3.5
	2.06	3.44	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)	3.39 ↓ (3.41)	3.74 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
46.8%

Draw
27.9%

Atlético Mineiro
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

27.9%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

28.4%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	13%	13%

Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 56% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 88. Cauan Barros 28. Adson 10. Rojas J. 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 17. Moreira N. 77. Spinelli C.	22. Everson (C) 13. Lyanco 3. Roman I. 14. Vitor Hugo 2. Natanael 25. Perez T. 30. Victor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 28. Cuello 11. Bernard 19. Reinier
Substitutes
72. Bruno Lopes 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 25. Hugo Moura 60. Joao Vitor 43. Lucas Freitas 86. Lukas Zuccarello 96. Paulo Henrique 83. Ramon Rique 82. Riquelme Avellar 3. Tche Tche 64. Walace Fernandes	5. Alexsander 29. Caua 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 48. Mateus Iseppe 36. Pascini K. 31. Robert (G) 40. Vitao
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Vitor Hugo ⚽, Bernard (A),
34', Cauan Barros 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Moreira N. ↓, David ↑,
63', Bernard ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
63', Victor Hugo ↓, Alexsander ↑,
69', Rojas J. ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
80', Lodi R. ↓, Pascini K. ↑,
80', Reinier ↓, Caua ↑,
80', Adson ↓, Lukas Zuccarello ↑,
80', Rodriguez J. ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
88', Roman I. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 1.

Recent form of Vasco has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético MG is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vasco might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Vasco: Andres Gomez (Yellow Cards) Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury) Paulo Henrique (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (International duty) Franco A. (International duty) Gustavo Scarpa (Knee Injury) Minda A. (International duty) Patrick Silva (Knee Injury) Preciado A. (International duty) Ruan Tressoldi (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Barracas Central	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Red Bull Bragantino	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Internacional RS - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLT
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	5:0
10.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
04.12.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
Copa do Brasil
19.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
02.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:0
20.08.23	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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