Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Mineiro		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3.45	3.87
	2.06	3.37	3.79	Watch
	2	3.1	3.6
	2.08	3.36	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.96)	3.31 ↑ (3.25)	3.75 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
46.2%

Draw
28.6%

Mirassol
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

28.3%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

29.7%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Mirassol (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Mirassol (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (C) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 6. Alonso J. 16. Lodi R. 8. Maycon 21. Franco A. 28. Cuello 27. Minda A. 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M.	22. Walter (G) 34. Joao Victor (C) 2. Lucas Oliveira 3. Willian Machado 20. Daniel Borges 33. Eduardo 8. Denilson 6. Reinaldo 95. Edson Carioca 77. Alesson 96. Carlos Eduardo
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 29. Caua 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 13. Lyanco 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 14. Vitor Hugo	23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 16. Igor Carius 21. Jose Aldo 26. Lucas Mugni 97. Rodrigues 7. Shaylon 29. Tiquinho Soares 12. Victor Luis 5. Yuri Lara
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Minda A. ⚽, Bernard (A),
40', 1 - 1, Willian Machado ⚽, Reinaldo (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Alesson ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
57', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Shaylon ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Maycon (Penalty Awarded),
63', Denilson ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
63', Edson Carioca ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
72', Cuello ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
79', Minda A. ↓, Lyanco ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Cisse M. ⚽,
84', Cassierra M. ↓, Caua ↑,
86', Eduardo ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
87', Reinaldo 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Atlético MG has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mirassol is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.

Recently, Mirassol has had a series of home games.

Atlético MG will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Indio (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Knee Injury) Victor Hugo (Inactive)

There will not play in Mirassol: Negueba (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético MG: Bernard (Injury) Hulk (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Injury) Igor Formiga (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético MG won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Mirassol: 0.85% Atletico-MG: 0.31%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.9%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTWL
- Mirassol
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Mirassol - Always Ready	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	1:0
26.04.25	Mirassol - Atlético Mineiro	2:2

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