Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vasco da Gama		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.25	4.2
	1.92	3.25	3.95
	1.94	3.34	4.38
	1.28	4.99	12.43	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.4
	1.98	3.39	4.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.86)	3.48 ↑ (3.38)	5.26 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
52.5%

Draw
28.6%

Ceará
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.6%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.6%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Vasco da Gama - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 30. Robert Renan 43. Lucas Freitas 2. Rodriguez J. 85. Mateus Carvalho 88. Cauan Barros 77. Rayan 10. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P. (C)	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Richardson (C) 20. Diego 27. Galeano A. 97. Lourenco 17. Paulo Baya 9. Pedro Raul
Substitutes
46. Cuesta C. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 15. Garre B. 11. Gomez C. A. 14. Guilherme Estrella 66. Leandrinho 29. Lucas Oliveira 9. Matheus Franca 22. Paulinho 18. Paulinho Paula 12. Victor Luis	11. Aylon 33. Eder 77. Fernandinho 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 88. Fernando Sobral 31. Lucas Lima 3. Marllon 30. Nicolas 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 75. Rodriguinho 29. Vina
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Coutinho ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Galeano A. ⚽,
26', Richardson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mateus Carvalho ↓, Gomez C. A. ↑,
57', Cauan Barros 🟨,
64', Lourenco ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
65', Lucas Freitas 🟨,
65', Lucas Freitas ↓, Cuesta C. ↑,
72', Rodriguinho 🟥,
78', Paulo Baya ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
78', Richardson ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
79', Cauan Barros ↓, David ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Cuesta C. ⚽, Gomez C. A. (A),
84', Pedro Raul ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
84', Galeano A. ↓, Vina ↑,
86', Moreira N. ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
86', Coutinho ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
90+2', Fabiano 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Pedro Henrique ⚽,
90+7', Gomez C. A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 15 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

Vasco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceará is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Broken Leg) Hugo Moura (Yellow Cards) Jair (Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Fernandinho (Muscle Injury) Fernando Miguel (Knee Injury) Matheus Bahia (Calf Injury) Ramos R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Vasco: Moreira N. (Injury) Tche Tche (Injury) Thiago Mendes (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	2:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	2:3 ✺
20.08.25	Juventude - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWTLL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.25	Ceará - Juventude	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Grêmio - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.04.25	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	2:1
30.11.20	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	1:4
20.08.20	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	0:3
26.10.19	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	1:1
13.06.19	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	1:0
02.12.18	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	0:0
20.08.18	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	1:1

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