Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 4

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Augusto V. C. M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Vasco da Gama		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5.75
	1.73	3.6	5.5
	1.68	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.69	3.64	6.07
	1.67	3.64	6.08
	1.6	3.75	5.5
	1.7	3.58	5.88	Watch
	1.64	3.55	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	3.61 ↓ (3.78)	5.74 ↑ (5.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
57%

Draw
26.4%

Criciúma
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.7%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

24.3%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Vasco da Gama - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: Vasco da Gama will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 17. Medel G. (C) 3. Leo 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 20. Sforza J. 77. Rayan Vitor 10. Payet D. 7. David 99. Vegetti P.	1. Gustavo (G) 27. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Angel W. 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Gustavo Barreto 5. Higor Meritao 7. Fellipe Mateus 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 35. Arthur Caike 11. Bolasie Y.
Substitutes
28. Adson 9. Clayton 16. Erick Marcus 27. Galdames P. 38. Joao Victor 98. JP 13. Keiller (G) 4. Maicon 85. Mateus Carvalho 32. Rojas R. 31. Rossi 12. Victor Luis	25. Alisson (G) 30. Barcia M. 19. Candelo Y. 23. Citadin E. 9. Felipe Vizeu 21. Joao Carlos 17. Matheusinho 8. Newton 6. Ronald Lopes 32. Teixeira M. (G) 14. Trauco M. 33. Walisson Maia
Coaches
Diaz R.	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Fellipe Mateus ⚽, Bolasie Y. (A),
43', Vegetti P. (Pen),
45+1', Lucas Piton 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Payet D. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
46', Medel G. ↓, Maicon ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Fellipe Mateus ⚽, Bolasie Y. (A),
55', 0 - 3, Bolasie Y. ⚽, Gustavo Barreto (A),
57', Sforza J. ↓, Adson ↑,
58', David ↓, Clayton ↑,
59', Bolasie Y. ↓, Citadin E. ↑,
60', Arthur Caike ↓, Felipe Vizeu ↑,
67', Angel W. ↓, Walisson Maia ↑,
69', 0 - 4, Higor Meritao ⚽, Walisson Maia (A),
71', Hugo Moura ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
75', Higor Meritao ↓, Newton ↑,
75', Claudinho ↓, Candelo Y. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 3.

Vasco is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Criciúma is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Criciúma could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Vasco is a favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Injury) Medel G. (Personal Reasons) Paulinho (Injury) Payet D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Figueiredo T. (Injury) Gustavo (Injury) Jonathan (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vasco won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
17.04.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
17.03.24	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
10.03.24	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
17.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Criciúma - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.04.24	Criciúma - Brusque	1:1 ✺
30.03.24	Brusque - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
24.03.24	Criciúma - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.10.22	Vasco da Gama - Criciúma	2:1
09.07.22	Criciúma - Vasco da Gama	0:1
19.11.16	Criciúma - Vasco da Gama	1:0
30.07.16	Vasco da Gama - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
13.10.13	Criciúma - Vasco da Gama	3:2
27.07.13	Vasco da Gama - Criciúma	3:2

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