Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Referee: Armenta J. E. H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 3, ESPN 4


	Venados		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.40	2.25
	2.55	3.50	2.33	Watch
	2.90	3.69	2.36
	2.79	3.67	2.31	Watch
	2.85	3.65	2.25
	2.80	3.50	2.35	Watch
	2.70	3.50	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.54)	3.56 ↓ (3.61)	2.3 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
33.8%

Draw
26%

Atlético Morelia
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25.9%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

25.3%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Venados - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
3. Perez S. (G) 31. Dominguez I. 32. Aguilar M. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 14. Montiel S. 5. Naveda S. 18. Amador K. 11. Tejeda D. 8. Kilani P. 7. Reyes J. 29. Lora S. (C)	22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 16. Sandoval R. 8. Martinez J. (C) 13. Andrade A. 20. Aguilar D. 10. Dominguez M. 17. Nambo M. 9. del Campo R.
Substitutes
17. Arroyo L. 27. Benitez S. 23. Castellanos R. (G) 20. Cruz J. 16. Macias L. 22. Montelongo M. 13. Ochoa Brandon 34. Saucedo S. 6. Torres E. 30. Torres M.	21. Castellanos E. 14. Castellanos R. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 3. Hernandez S. 32. Izarra A. 11. Lopez V. 26. Martinez J. 7. Romero P. 5. Van Rankin J.
Coaches
Castro N.	Colace H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Dominguez I. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Lora S. ⚽, Reyes J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nambo M. ↓, Van Rankin J. ↑,
46', Dominguez M. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
56', Andrade A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
57', Martinez J. 🟨,
59', Naveda S. 🟨,
60', Reyes J. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Flores A. ⚽, Aguilar D. (A),
65', 2 - 1, Lora S. ⚽,
67', Moreno Villegas J. A. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
67', Kilani P. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
73', Lopez Aburto R. ↓, Castellanos E. ↑,
76', Aguilar M. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
81', Lora S. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Van Rankin J. 🟨,
84', Martinez J. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
89', Arroyo L. 🟨,
90+5', Ochoa Brandon 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 1st in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 2.

Venados has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Atlético Morelia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Venados has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:21 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Venados against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:8 goals (averaging 1.2:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
4	Venados	11	6	1	4	26:21	5	19

Last Results with these Odds

Venados - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.77%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.09.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Venados	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Venados - Dorados	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:1 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Atlético Morelia - Correcaminos UAT	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2
02.03.25	Atlético Morelia - Venados	1:0
13.09.24	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1
28.03.24	Atlético Morelia - Venados	3:4
09.11.23	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 penalties
19.10.23	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1

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