Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Venados		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.62	3.95	4.35	Watch
	1.6	4.34	4.99
	1.79	3.90	3.73	Watch
	1.58	3.96	4.66	Watch
	1.78	3.7	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.79)	3.97 ↑ (3.9)	4.31 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
55.2%

Draw
23.3%

Tlaxcala
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

23.7%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

23.2%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Venados - Tlaxcala Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Venados will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tlaxcala will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Venados (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Delgado A. (G) 18. Amador K. 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 8. Dominguez A. 23. Galvan P. 21. Lopez C. 15. Navarrete D. 30. Torres Sauri M. 25. Trejo Castro M. A. 33. Vidrio N. (C)	1. Mata F. (G) 28. Becerra L. 18. Buganza F. 19. Castaneda S. 5. Esnaider F. 4. Fabio Erins 6. Gonzalez Martinez J. D. 2. Gonzalez P. (C) 33. Martinez D. 24. Robles E. 11. Salomon O.
Substitutes
12. Acosta C. 143. Benitez S. 16. Espinosa E. 4. Grijalva A. 3. Levin J. 6. Lopez F. 5. Miranda J. 1. Reyes D. (G) 22. Sancho J. 35. Suarez V.	17. Castillo E. 9. Christian 20. Godinez I. 34. Morales A. 30. Nuno A. (G) 25. Rojas H. 31. Silva J. 16. Solis E. 15. Tejeda D. 21. Zaragoza A.
Coaches
Rodriguez J.	Fabian M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', Castaneda S. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, Calero J. ⚽, Navarrete D. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Trejo Castro M. A. ⚽, Vidrio N. (A),
26', Martinez D. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
26', Gonzalez Martinez J. D. ↓, Solis E. ↑,
27', 3 - 0, Calero J. ⚽,
43', 3 - 1, Esnaider F. ⚽, Salomon O. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lopez C. ↓, Acosta C. ↑,
46', Torres Sauri M. ↓, Benitez S. ↑,
57', Esnaider F. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
57', Salomon O. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
59', 4 - 1, Casillas J. ⚽,
60', Galvan P. ↓, Espinosa E. ↑,
64', 5 - 1, Amador K. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
78', Robles E. ↓, Christian ↑,
83', Christian 🟨,
84', Navarrete D. ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 2.

Recent performances by Venados have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tlaxcala has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Venados is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Venados won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Venados won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.11.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Venados	1:0 ✺
23.10.25	Venados - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Atlante - Venados	3:0 ✺
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLWW
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.11.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Dorados - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Atlante - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.25	Venados - Tlaxcala	2:1
26.10.24	Tlaxcala - Venados	1:1
21.02.24	Tlaxcala - Venados	1:0
21.07.23	Venados - Tlaxcala	3:1
27.04.23	Tlaxcala - Venados	2:0
14.03.23	Tlaxcala - Venados	1:1
04.10.22	Venados - Tlaxcala	3:0

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