Match Info

J2 League - Round 29

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: JIT Recycle Ink Stadium (Kofu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Ventforet Kofu		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.7	2.85	2.5
	2.72	2.92	2.58
	2.98	3.05	2.75
	3.33	3.20	2.19	Watch
	2.81	2.91	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.84)	3.01 ↓ (3.07)	2.51 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ventforet Kofu
32.2%

Draw
30.9%

Sagan Tosu
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

30.2%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

29.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ventforet Kofu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ventforet Kofu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Ventforet Kofu - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kofu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Tosu will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kofu (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kofu (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawata K. (G) 2. Inoue M. 3. Son T. 21. Renato Augusto 11. Kumakura K. 16. Hayashida K. 48. Val Soares 6. Kobayashi I. 10. Torikai Y. 14. Tanaka Y. 44. Naito Y.	12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 30. Kimoto Y. 32. Ogawa S. 5. Nagasawa S. 2. Matsumoto N. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 16. Nishizawa K. 34. Yamada H.
Substitutes
7. Araki S. 20. Endo H. 30. Ishikawa K. (G) 22. Koide Y. 77. Matheus Leiria 9. Mitsuhira K. 49. Neemias 26. Sato K. 17. Tsuchiya T.	18. Hino S. 4. Imazu Y. 23. Kitajima F. 8. Narahara Y. 33. Nishiya K. 15. Sakai N. 47. Shinkawa S. 77. Slivka V. 35. Uchiyama K. (G)
Coaches
Otsuka S.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Torikai Y. ⚽, Val Soares (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Matsumoto N. ⚽, Nishikawa J. (A),
62', Sakurai T. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
62', Val Soares ↓, Sato K. ↑,
62', Inoue M. ↓, Tsuchiya T. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Naito Y. ⚽,
67', Kumakura K. ↓, Koide Y. ↑,
72', Nagasawa S. ↓, Narahara Y. ↑,
73', Kimoto Y. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
78', Matsumoto N. ↓, Nishiya K. ↑,
82', Tanaka Y. ↓, Araki S. ↑,
82', Renato Augusto ↓, Matheus Leiria ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Nishikawa J. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 3, Shinkawa S. ⚽, Nishiya K. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kofu won 1.

Recent performances by Kofu have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tosu has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Kofu won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kofu won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ventforet Kofu - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.65%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ventforet Kofu
Japan J2 League
30.08.25	JEF United Chiba - Ventforet Kofu	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Ventforet Kofu - Consadole Sapporo	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Ventforet Kofu - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
11.08.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ventforet Kofu - Montedio Yamagata	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWL
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
30.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Sagan Tosu - Mito HollyHock	2:2 ✺
17.08.25	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Ehime - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Consadole Sapporo - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
11.05.25	Sagan Tosu - Ventforet Kofu	0:0
Japan Emperors Cup
13.07.22	Sagan Tosu - Ventforet Kofu	1:3
Japan J1 League
16.09.17	Sagan Tosu - Ventforet Kofu	2:1
02.07.17	Ventforet Kofu - Sagan Tosu	0:0
Japan J League Cup
31.05.17	Ventforet Kofu - Sagan Tosu	2:3
Japan J1 League
03.11.16	Ventforet Kofu - Sagan Tosu	0:1
12.03.16	Sagan Tosu - Ventforet Kofu	1:1

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