Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ceibeño (La Ceiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Victoria La Ceiba		Lobos UPNFM

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.3	3.15
	2.13	3.28	2.96
	2.18	3.53	3.04	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.9
	2.14	3.28	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.4)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	3.02 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Victoria La Ceiba
42.5%

Draw
27.5%

Lobos UPNFM
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

26.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

26.1%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Victoria La Ceiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lobos UPNFM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Victoria La Ceiba than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flores E. (G) 5. Banegas A. 28. Barrios A. 17. Bernardez C. 20. Espinal M. (C) 52. Hernandez A. 19. Lahera Y. 42. Martinez E. 32. Monico D. 16. Portillo A. 24. Sanchez J.	1. Valladares C. (G) 21. Guity E. 30. Herrlein L. 2. Lopez L. 11. Moreira R. 8. Nunez J. 25. Onofre G. 27. Pena K. (C) 6. Ponce J. 46. Ruiz J. 5. Zuniga A.
Substitutes
3. Barrios O. 23. Bueso G. 48. Card S. 25. Chavez B. 8. Kelly K. 6. Matute C. 4. Oliva E. 12. Perello M. (G) 38. Ramirez L. 65. Sevilla L. 29. Suazo O.	22. Ardon C. 12. Guity A. (G) 13. Gutierrez C. 26. Lopez B. 20. Lopez E. 17. Padilla J. 7. Rochez C. 9. Rochez J. 16. Vasquez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Moreira R. 🟨,
14', Bernardez C. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Barrios A. ⚽,
20', Banegas A. ↓, Matute C. ↑,
28', Bernardez C. (Penalty Awarded),
30', Ruiz J. ↓, Gutierrez C. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Moreira R. ↓, Rochez J. ↑,
46', Herrlein L. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
46', Portillo A. ↓, Sevilla L. ↑,
52', Onofre G. 🟨,
61', Onofre G. ↓, Rochez C. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Bernardez C. ⚽,
69', Monico D. ↓, Card S. ↑,
73', Lahera Y. (Penalty Awarded),
73', 3 - 0, Lahera Y. ⚽,
76', Bernardez C. ↓, Ramirez L. ↑,
77', Pena K. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,
90', 3 - 1, Rochez J. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 2, Zuniga A. ⚽,
90+5', Lopez E. 🟨,
90+8', Guity E. 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Victoria La Ceiba won 0.

Victoria La Ceiba has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lobos UPNFM is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lobos UPNFM may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Victoria La Ceiba won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:19. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Victoria La Ceiba won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.3:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Victoria La Ceiba
Honduras Liga Nacional
22.03.26	CD Marathón - Victoria La Ceiba	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Platense	2:3 ✺
11.03.26	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	4:1 ✺
08.03.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Génesis PN	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Juticalpa - Victoria La Ceiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
02.04.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	0:0 ✺
23.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Olancho	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
12.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	2:2
25.10.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	0:1
16.08.25	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	2:0
02.04.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	0:0
03.02.25	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1
02.11.24	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1
25.08.24	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	2:1

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