Match Info

LaLiga - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Sesma M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
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India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, SCTV
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Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
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Poland	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 3
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
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Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Villarreal		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3.8	2.6
	2.48	3.7	2.68	Watch
	2.52	3.8	2.75
	2.52	3.86	2.67
	2.4	3.5	2.63
	2.53	3.84	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.58)	3.73 ↓ (3.82)	2.69 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
38.6%

Draw
25.7%

Atlético Madrid
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

25.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

27%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13%	17.4%	69.6%

Villarreal - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Atlético will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Tenas A. (G) 15. Mourino S. 6. Navarro P. 4. Marin R. 24. Pedraza A. 19. Pepe N. 18. Gueye P. 10. Parejo D. (C) 20. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A. 9. Mikautadze G.	1. Musso J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 15. Lenglet C. 17. Hancko D. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 21. Vargas O. 10. Baena A. 7. Griezmann A. 22. Lookman A.
Substitutes
17. Buchanan T. 33. Cabanes P. 23. Cardona S. 2. Costa L. 38. Diatta A. 3. Freeman A. 11. Gonzalez A. 5. Kambwala W. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 37. Macia C. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 12. Veiga R.	29. Belaid R. 32. Bonar J. 61. Cubo M. 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 37. Luque I. 47. Morcillo J. 13. Oblak J. (G) 40. Puric A. 3. Ruggeri M. 9. Sorloth A.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
27', Simeone G. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Parejo D. (Penalty Awarded),
34', 2 - 0, Perez A. ⚽,
40', 3 - 0, Mikautadze G. ⚽, Perez A. (A),
43', 3 - 1, Pubill M. ⚽, Griezmann A. (A),
45', 4 - 1, Gueye P. ⚽, Pepe N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Simeone G. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
46', Hancko D. ↓, Puric A. ↑,
46', Pubill M. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
54', 5 - 1, Perez A. ⚽, Pepe N. (A),
61', Lookman A. ↓, Bonar J. ↑,
61', Baena A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
66', Parejo D. ↓, Diatta A. ↑,
67', Pedraza A. ↓, Cardona S. ↑,
75', Gueye P. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
75', Perez A. ↓, Cabanes P. ↑,
89', Mikautadze G. ↓, Macia C. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Villarreal is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

Atlético is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Villarreal: Comesana S. (Muscle Injury) Foyth J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Ankle Injury) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Contusion) Gimenez J. M. (Ankle Injury) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury) Le Normand R. (Yellow Cards) Molina N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Convalescence) Moreno G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Mendoza R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 4 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.08% Villarreal: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13:12	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 38.16%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Villarreal - Sevilla	2:3 ✺
10.05.26	Mallorca - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Villarreal - Levante	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Villarreal - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTWW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Atlético Madrid - Girona	1:0 ✺
12.05.26	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.05.26	Arsenal - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.05.26	Valencia - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:0
25.01.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	1:1
19.08.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	2:2
01.04.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	1:2
12.11.23	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	3:1
04.06.23	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	2:2
21.08.22	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	0:2

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