Match Info

LaLiga - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: De Burgos R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Denmark	TV2 Play
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Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
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Greece	Nova Sports 6
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, SCTV, Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
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Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
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North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
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Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
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Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
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Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
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Singapore	beIN Sport 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
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Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online


	Rayo Vallecano		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.2
	2.02	3.55	3.55	Watch
	2.07	3.69	3.71
	2.08	3.63	3.44	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.5
	2.05	3.76	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.33)	3.59 ↑ (3.58)	3.56 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
46.6%

Draw
26.6%

Villarreal
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

26.3%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

25.4%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Vallecano's performance.

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villarreal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	52.6%	15.8%

Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Villarreal will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 52.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 6. Ciss P. 24. Lejeune F. 3. Chavarria P. 8. Trejo O. (C) 23. Valentin O. 17. Lopez U. 19. de Frutos J. 9. Alemao 10. Camello S.	25. Tenas A. (G) 15. Mourino S. 5. Kambwala W. 4. Marin R. 23. Cardona S. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. (C) 18. Gueye P. 20. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A. 21. Oluwaseyi T.
Substitutes
20. Balliu I. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 30. Gil J. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 14. Martin C. 32. Mendy N. 16. Mumin A. 11. Nteka R. 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 33. Vertrouwd J.	2. Costa L. 3. Freeman A. 11. Gonzalez A. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 6. Navarro P. 10. Parejo D. 16. Partey T. 24. Pedraza A. 19. Pepe N.
Coaches
Perez I.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Camello S. ⚽, Ratiu A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Buchanan T. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Alemao ⚽, Trejo O. (A),
61', Lejeune F. 🟨,
63', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
64', Comesana S. ↓, Partey T. ↑,
66', Trejo O. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
72', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
73', Camello S. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
74', Alemao ↓, Martin C. ↑,
77', Kambwala W. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
81', Chavarria P. ↓, Pacha ↑,
82', Lopez U. 🟨,
82', Lopez U. ↓, Mumin A. ↑,
90+6', Mourino S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Villarreal is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.

Rayo Vallecano is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Villarreal has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Muscle Injury) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Mendez D. (Knee Injury) Palazon I. (Red Card)

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Veiga R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Garcia A. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:43. (average 0.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:20. (average 1.2:2).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Villarreal: 0.27% Rayo Vallecano: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13:12	1	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 33.16%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
14.05.26	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Rayo Vallecano - Girona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.05.26	Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.26	Getafe - Rayo Vallecano	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TTWWW
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
13.05.26	Villarreal - Sevilla	2:3 ✺
10.05.26	Mallorca - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Villarreal - Levante	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Villarreal - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Real Oviedo - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	4:0
22.02.25	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	0:1
18.12.24	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
28.04.24	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
24.09.23	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	1:1
28.05.23	Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal	2:1
30.01.23	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	0:1

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