Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vitória Salvador		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.7	Watch
	2.60	3.20	2.75
	2.52	3.15	2.75	Watch
	2.78	3.23	2.81
	2.65	3.2	2.79	Watch
	2.7	3.15	2.75
	2.78	3.09	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.52)	3.14 ↓ (3.23)	2.76 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
35.4%

Draw
30.2%

Bahia
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30.5%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Vitória Salvador - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (C) 2. Britez E. 25. Caca 36. Luan Candido 13. Ramon 15. Walace 88. Ze Vitor 33. Erick 10. Matheuzinho 12. Tarzia D. 91. Rene	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 14. Erick 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 99. Olivera C. 11. Rodrigo 16. Erick Pulga 9. Veliz A.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 26. Edenilson 6. Emmanuel Martinez 23. Fabricio 83. Jamerson 18. Kauan 7. Marinho 98. Matheusinho 11. Osvaldo 8. Pochettino T. 79. Renato Kayzer 71. Yuri (G)	8. Caio Alexandre 27. Everaldo 17. Herrera G. (G) 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 77. Ruan Pablo 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Matheuzinho 🟨,
42', Rodrigo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Tarzia D. ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
46', Walace ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
63', Erick ↓, Marinho ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Veliz A. ⚽, Erick Pulga (A),
70', Matheuzinho ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,
71', Erick ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
77', Britez E. ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
78', Erick Pulga 🟨,
82', Erick Pulga ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
82', Rodrigo ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
90+4', Veliz A. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
90+7', 0 - 2, Jean Lucas ⚽, Michel Araujo (A),
90+7', Caca 🟨,
90+7', Jean Lucas 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Anderson (Knee Injury) Camutanga (Broken Leg) Dudu (Back Injury) Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nathan Mendes (Knee Injury) Ramos R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Everton Ribeiro (Inactive) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vitória: Riccieli (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Ademir (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	4:0 ✺
03.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.26	Vitória Salvador - Palmeiras	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWLL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:3 ✺
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
29.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	2:1
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1
16.03.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:0

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