Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 17

Date: 16 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)


	Vitória Salvador		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	2.75	2.8
	2.32	2.85	3.25
	2.7	2.93	3.11
	2.5	2.75	2.75
	2.64	2.98	2.91	Watch
	2.7	2.85	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.15)	2.85 ↓ (3.2)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
36%

Draw
32.5%

Grêmio Novorizontino
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

29.1%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória Salvador's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Vitória Salvador - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 13. Camutanga 4. Wagner Leonardo 5. Yan Souto 2. Railan 8. Gege 21. Rodrigues E. 6. Felipe Vieira 11. Osvaldo (C) 7. Mateus Goncalves 10. Wellington Nem	44. Jordi (G) 3. Renato 37. Cesar Martins (C) 4. Ligger 97. Lepo 5. Geovane 28. Marlon 16. Reverson 7. Douglas Baggio 11. Aylon 9. Ronaldo
Substitutes
20. Giovanni Augusto 15. Jhonny Lucas 3. Joao Victor 18. Jose Hugo 9. Leo Gamalho 16. Marcelo Nunes 14. Matheus Trindade 22. Santiago Trellez 17. Thiago Lopes 12. Thiago Rodrigues (G) 19. Welder	23. Biel 20. Felipe Marques 1. Georgemy (G) 43. Guilherme Matos 18. Jenison 88. Matsuoka D. 15. Ricardinho 10. Rodolfo 17. Romulo 95. Ze Mateus
Coaches
Conde L.	Eduardo Baptista

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Vitória is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Novorizontino is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Novorizontino could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Vitória will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Dionisio (Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Bruno Silva (Injury) Denner (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie B
10.07.23	Vila Nova - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
02.07.23	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
28.06.23	Vitória Salvador - Sampaio Corrêa	2:1 ✺
25.06.23	Guarani - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
11.06.23	Vitória Salvador - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
07.07.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
02.07.23	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
27.06.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
24.06.23	Tombense - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
10.06.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLWW

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