Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 21

Date: 9 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Israel	Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV7


	Famalicão		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.4	4.75	7	Watch
	1.46	4.45	6.4	Watch
	1.48	4.52	7.03
	1.47	4.46	6.71	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.52	4.47	6.71	Watch
	1.46	4.33	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.41)	4.41 (4.41)	6.63 ↓ (8.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
64.5%

Draw
21.3%

AVS
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

21.4%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

15.7%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Famalicão that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.2%	0%	3.8%

Famalicão - AVS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Famalicão (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Famalicão will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.75% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 14 - 93.3%). AVS (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 2. Garcia 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 28. Pedro Bondo 80. Santos P. 6. Van de Looi T. 20. Sa G. (C) 23. Gil Dias 9. Abubakar U. 7. Sorriso	1. Adriel (G) 3. Paulo Vitor 42. Devenish C. (C) 12. Rivas L. 97. Mateus Pivo 23. Mendonca G. 70. Roni 8. Pedro Lima 11. Akinsola T. 20. Duarte D. 7. Tomane
Substitutes
91. Almeida R. 12. Elisor S. 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 47. Pastor G. 8. Pena M. 5. Rafa Soares 3. Realpe L. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	27. Algobia A. 19. Galletto T. 24. Kiki 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 14. Perea O. 26. Ponck 33. Santos A. 93. Simao (G)
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Garcia 🟨,
25', De Haas J. 🟨,
29', Paulo Vitor ↓, Ponck ↑,
45+2', Pedro Bondo 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Pedro Bondo ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
48', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
50', 0 - 1, Duarte D. ⚽, Tomane (A),
54', 1 - 1, De Haas J. ⚽, Joujou A. (A),
63', 2 - 1, Joujou A. ⚽, Santos P. (A),
67', 3 - 1, Abubakar U. ⚽, Santos P. (A),
70', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
70', Duarte D. ↓, Perea O. ↑,
74', Sa G. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
74', Abubakar U. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
76', Rivas L. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
76', Mendonca G. ↓, Algobia A. ↑,
81', Santos P. ↓, Pastor G. ↑,
90+1', Sorriso ↓, Almeida R. ↑,
90+4', Pedro Lima 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In recent matches, Famalicão has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AVS has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Famalicão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Famalicão is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) De Amorim M. (Red Card)

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha (Inactive)

There are questionable in AVS: Baroan A. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Clara - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWLL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Taça de Portugal
05.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	3:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
02.02.26	AVS - Braga	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	Casa Pia - AVS	3:3 ✺
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1
30.03.25	Famalicão - AVS	4:1
03.11.24	AVS - Famalicão	2:3

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