Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 32

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Referee: van de Graaf E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Waalwijk		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.8	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.9	1.9
	3.2	3.9	2.08	Watch
	3.2	4	2.2
	3.28	3.99	2.02	Watch
	3.5	3.75	1.91
	3.39	4.01	2.06	Watch
	3.25	3.95	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.81)	3.91 ↑ (3.7)	2.04 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Waalwijk
28.7%

Draw
24.4%

Heerenveen
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

25.5%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

25.1%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heerenveen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heerenveen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	16.7%	72.2%

Waalwijk - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Waalwijk will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Heerenveen (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Waalwijk (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heerenveen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Waalwijk (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Heerenveen (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Spenkelink M. (G) 33. Al Mazyani F. 2. Lelieveld J. 17. van Eijma R. 4. Van Gelderen L. 5. Familia-Castillo J. 22. van de Loo T. 52. Ihattaren M. 6. Oukili Y. 19. Margaret R. 9. Zawada O. (C)	44. Noppert A. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 28. Petrov H. 11. Kohlert M. (C) 16. Linday M. 21. van Ee E. 20. Trenskow J. 14. Smans L. 10. Sebaoui I. 18. Nicolaescu I.
Substitutes
7. Cleonise D. 32. el Yaakoubi R. 35. Felida K. 1. Houwen J. (G) 11. Jakobsen A. 13. Kesting J. (G) 29. Kramer M. 14. Lokesa C. 28. Meijers A. 24. Roemeratoe G. 8. Vroegh P. 34. Wouters L.	39. Ahmed I. 15. Ali H. 23. Bekkema J. (G) 32. Bouw R. 6. Conde A. 50. Gurbuz E. 2. Hall D. 31. Jansen K. 22. Klaverboer B. (G) 24. Lukovic M. 7. Nunnely C. 26. Rallis D.
Coaches
Fraser H.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Margaret R. ⚽,
16', Linday M. ↓, Conde A. ↑,
36', 1 - 1, Nicolaescu I. (Pen),
43', Braude O. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Sebaoui I. 🟥,
67', Trenskow J. ↓, Lukovic M. ↑,
71', Van Gelderen L. 🟨,
72', van Eijma R. ↓, Kramer M. ↑,
72', Zawada O. ↓, Lokesa C. ↑,
72', van de Loo T. ↓, Roemeratoe G. ↑,
74', Nicolaescu I. ↓, Jansen K. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Oukili Y. ⚽, Lokesa C. (A),
79', 3 - 1, Lokesa C. ⚽, Familia-Castillo J. (A),
80', Lokesa C. 🟨,
87', Oukili Y. ↓, Vroegh P. ↑,
87', Ihattaren M. ↓, Cleonise D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Waalwijk won 1.

Waalwijk is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Heerenveen's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Heerenveen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Heerenveen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Waalwijk: Takidine I. (Inactive) van Osch Y. (Injury)

There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P. (Knee Injury) Brouwers L. (Yellow Cards) Milovanovic M. (Injury) Nunnely C. (Inactive) de Wijs J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Waalwijk: Weidmann D. (Injury) Wouters L. (Inactive) Zawada O. (Inactive) van der Venne R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Petrov H. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Waalwijk won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:24. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Waalwijk won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eredivisie
03.05.25	Groningen - Waalwijk	6:1 ✺
25.04.25	Waalwijk - Utrecht	0:4 ✺
11.04.25	NEC Nijmegen - Waalwijk	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Waalwijk - Heracles Almelo	0:0 ✺
01.04.25	AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLLTT
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
27.04.25	Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Heerenveen - Almere City	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Heerenveen	3:1 ✺
04.04.25	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:1 ✺
30.03.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
29.11.24	Heerenveen - Waalwijk	1:1
30.03.24	Waalwijk - Heerenveen	1:1
12.08.23	Heerenveen - Waalwijk	3:1
25.02.23	Heerenveen - Waalwijk	1:4
07.01.23	Waalwijk - Heerenveen	0:0
12.03.22	Waalwijk - Heerenveen	0:0
21.08.21	Heerenveen - Waalwijk	3:2

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