Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 25

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
China	K-Ball
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	Eurosport
Netherlands	Canal+
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3


	AZ Alkmaar		Waalwijk

	1	X	2
	1.22	7	11	Watch
	1.27	6	10
	1.21	6.9	12.5	Watch
	1.23	6.46	12.61	Watch
	1.25	5.5	10
	1.25	7.2	11.3	Watch
	1.21	6.9	12.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.32)	6.57 ↑ (5.34)	11.42 ↑ (9.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
77.2%

Draw
14.5%

Waalwijk
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

17.8%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.9%

17.3%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	13.6%	4.5%

AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 43. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. M. 6. Koopmeiners P. (C) 26. Smit K. 28. Buurmeester Z. 11. Sadiq I. 9. Parrott T. 34. de Wit M.	1. Houwen J. (G) 17. van Eijma R. 4. Van Gelderen L. 32. el Yaakoubi R. 24. Roemeratoe G. 2. Lelieveld J. 23. van der Venne R. 6. Oukili Y. 28. Meijers A. 9. Zawada O. (C) 29. Kramer M.
Substitutes
14. Belic K. 27. Daal R. 22. Dekker M. 30. Kasius D. 4. Martins Indi B. 35. Meerdink M. 48. Oerip J. 21. Poku E. 7. van Bommel R. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 41. Zoet J. (G)	7. Cleonise D. 5. Familia-Castillo J. 35. Felida K. 52. Ihattaren M. 11. Jakobsen A. 13. Kesting J. (G) 14. Lokesa C. 19. Margaret R. 16. Spenkelink M. (G) 22. van de Loo T. 18. van der Water S. 8. Vroegh P.
Coaches
Martens M.	Fraser H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, Sadiq I. (A),
42', van der Venne R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', van der Venne R. ↓, Lokesa C. ↑,
58', Meijers A. ↓, Familia-Castillo J. ↑,
58', de Wit M. ↓, van Bommel R. ↑,
59', Sadiq I. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Kramer M. ⚽, Oukili Y. (A),
70', Dijkstra E. ↓, Belic K. ↑,
70', Goes W. ↓, Dekker M. ↑,
71', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
71', Zawada O. ↓, Margaret R. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Lokesa C. ⚽, Familia-Castillo J. (A),
84', 2 - 2, Meerdink M. ⚽, Wolfe D. M. (A),
85', van Eijma R. 🟨,
89', Lokesa C. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Last 5 head-to-head matches AZ won 4.

Recent matches AZ is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Waalwijk is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently AZ have a series of guest games.

In this match AZ is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Addai J. (Ankle Injury) Clasie J. (Inactive) Lahdo M. (Foot Injury) Mijnans S. (Muscle Injury) Westerveld S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Waalwijk: Al Mazyani F. (Red Card) Van den Buijs D. (Injury) Weidmann D. (Injury) van Osch Y. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knock) Schouten L. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches AZ won 12 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 41:17 (average 2.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams AZ won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22:8 (average 2.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar	3:3 ✺
16.03.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.03.25	Tottenham Hotspur - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
06.03.25	AZ Alkmaar - Tottenham Hotspur	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
02.03.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TTLWL
- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	Zwolle - Waalwijk	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Waalwijk - PSV Eindhoven	0:3 ✺
28.02.25	Waalwijk - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Twente - Waalwijk	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
30.08.24	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	0:3
13.04.24	AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk	3:2
20.08.23	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	1:3
23.04.23	AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk	3:0
06.11.22	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	3:1
15.05.22	AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk	1:3
Dutch KNVB Beker
09.02.22	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	0:4

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