Match Info

Division 1 - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej (Poznań)

Referee: Kochanek M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Warta Poznań		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.55	3.30	2.50
	2.55	3.3	2.52
	2.65	3.76	2.53
	2.58	3.57	2.53	Watch
	2.5	3.65	2.45
	2.5	3.42	2.39
	2.49	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.46)	3.44 ↓ (3.68)	2.48 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Poznań
36.2%

Draw
26.7%

Arka Gdynia
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

25.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

25%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Przybylak L. (C) 6. Lelito B. 3. Azatsky O. 21. Kalata K. 7. Apolinarski J. 22. Lysiak K. 13. Niedzielski J. 17. Stefaniak M. 23. Kusztal P. 10. Mlynarczyk A. 9. Stanek M.	33. Grobelny J. (G) 20. Gruszkowski K. 44. Dominguez J. 4. Komenda M. (C) 94. Gojny D. 72. Demirovic E. 19. Pawlowski B. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 16. Solecki K. 98. Rama E. 39. Milewski M.
Substitutes
24. Avdeev D. 77. Kendzia J. 2. Lepczynski K. 33. Piechowiak B. (G) 29. Rychert K. 99. Smoczynski M. 20. Szymanek K. 19. Wnuk A. 11. Wolczek A.	99. Arndt D. (G) 17. Dziegielewski N. 9. Gutkovskis V. 71. Kowalski J. 14. Kun D. 23. Lewkot S. 6. Lipkowski K. 22. Rzuchowski M. 77. Walus F.
Coaches
Tokarczyk M.	Jarolim M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Mlynarczyk A. ⚽, Niedzielski J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Milewski M. ↓, Dziegielewski N. ↑,
46', Pawlowski B. ↓, Walus F. ↑,
60', Mlynarczyk A. ↓, Szymanek K. ↑,
60', Stefaniak M. ↓, Avdeev D. ↑,
63', Rama E. ↓, Gutkovskis V. ↑,
63', Demirovic E. ↓, Kun D. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Szymanek K. ⚽, Stanek M. (A),
69', Dziegielewski N. 🟨,
72', Solecki K. 🟨,
77', Stanek M. ↓, Smoczynski M. ↑,
77', Kusztal P. ↓, Wolczek A. ↑,
85', Apolinarski J. ↓, Kendzia J. ↑,
86', Solecki K. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,
89', Niedzielski J. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 0, Wolczek A. ⚽, Lysiak K. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Warta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Warta has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Warta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Warta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Arka Gdynia: 4.05% Warta Poznan: 1.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Warta Poznan	9	5	0	4	17:13	4	15
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11:11	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Arka Gdynia - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.64%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Poznań
Polish Division 1
04.09.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Warta Poznań	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Miedź Legnica - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Chrobry Głogów - Warta Poznań	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Odra Opole - Warta Poznań	3:1 ✺
09.08.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Warta Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LLWLW
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
06.09.26	Arka Gdynia - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Resovia Rzeszów - Arka Gdynia	0:4 ✺
Polish Division 1
30.08.26	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Bytom	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Miedź Legnica - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Arka Gdynia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
08.04.25	Arka Gdynia - Warta Poznań	3:0
Club Friendly
25.01.25	Arka Gdynia - Warta Poznań	1:0
Polish Division 1
21.09.24	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	0:1
Club Friendly
15.01.22	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:0
Polish Division 1
09.03.13	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	0:1

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