Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday


	Welling United		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	1.98
	3.3	3.5	2.05
	3.28	3.45	2.08
	3.33	3.47	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.1
	3.27	3.44	2.06
	3.3	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.48)	3.44 ↓ (3.57)	2.06 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Welling United
28.3%

Draw
26.9%

Chelmsford City
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

25.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

24.8%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Welling United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Welling United's form might have worsened.

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelmsford City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Welling United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelmsford City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Welling United - Chelmsford City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
85', 0 - 1, Foyo O. ⚽,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Welling won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Chelmsford will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Welling won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 15:22 (average 0.8:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Welling won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:13 (average 1.1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Chelmsford City - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Welling United
English National League South
21.12.24	Salisbury - Welling United	3:1 ✺
14.12.24	Welling United - Bath City	1:0 ✺
29.11.24	Aveley - Welling United	1:1 ✺
26.11.24	Welling United - Tonbridge Angels	2:2 ✺
23.11.24	Slough Town - Welling United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWTTW
- Chelmsford City
English National League South
21.12.24	Chelmsford City - Weymouth	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chelmsford City	3:2 ✺
02.12.24	Chelmsford City - Boreham Wood	2:3 ✺
30.11.24	Chelmsford City - Slough Town	3:1 ✺
23.11.24	Worthing - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
22.01.24	Chelmsford City - Welling United	1:0
15.08.23	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:2
28.01.23	Chelmsford City - Welling United	0:1
27.08.22	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:2
19.03.22	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:0
15.01.22	Chelmsford City - Welling United	0:0
07.11.20	Welling United - Chelmsford City	0:4

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