Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	18:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	18:30	Z Sports 2
Argentina	14:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	21:30	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Australia	04:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	18:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	18:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	14:30	SporTV
Bulgaria	19:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	18:30	CRTV Sports
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	14:30	Disney+
China	01:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	12:30	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	18:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	18:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	18:30	See, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport Open Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	19:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	18:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports Extra 1, Nova Sports Prime
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	18:30	Arena 4
Iceland	17:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	23:00	Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
Ireland	17:30	NOW
Italy	18:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	18:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	11:30	Sky Sport
Moldova	19:30	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	01:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	18:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	06:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	18:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	18:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Peru	12:30	Disney+
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	18:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	17:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	19:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	18:30	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	18:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	18:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	18:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	18:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	01:30	ELTA Sports 3
Tajikistan	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	19:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	17:30	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	8	6	1.3	Watch
	9.3	6.4	1.27	Watch
	9.56	6.49	1.3
	9.57	6.52	1.29	Watch
	8	5.5	1.3
	8.7	6.4	1.34	Watch
	9	5.75	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.88 ↑ (8.17)	6.15 (6.15)	1.3 (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
10.8%

Draw
15.6%

Bayern Munich
73.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

11.6%

15.4%

73%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.9%

15.7%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	9.5%	83.3%

Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Bayern (2.85) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

AH +2 - Hamburg (1.62) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 3.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.06% – 94.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Bayern (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 11. Konigsdorffer R.	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. 45. Pavlovic A. 17. Olise M. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 37. Lemke L. 39. Megeed O. 17. Omari W. 10. Pherai I. 14. Philippe R. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 25. Torunarigha J.	20. Bischof T. 23. Boey S. 14. Diaz L. 8. Goretzka L. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 10. Musiala J. 4. Tah J. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Polzin M.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Remberg N. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Vieira F. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Karl L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
46', 1 - 2, Diaz L. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
53', 2 - 2, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
55', Muheim M. 🟨,
57', Kim Min-Jae 🟨,
59', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
65', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
65', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Tah J. ↑,
74', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
74', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
75', Lokonga A. S. 🟨,
85', Vieira F. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
85', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Pherai I. ↑,
86', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
87', Kane H. 🟨,
90+3', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
90+5', Olise M. 🟨,
90+10', Capaldo N. 🟨,
90+10', Kimmich J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bayern is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Suspended) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury) Sahiti E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bayern: Guerreiro R. (Calf Injury) Laimer K. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Balde F. (Injury) Downs D. (Injury) Glatzel R. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 8:72. (average 0.4:4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:28. (average 0.5:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	25:6	19	17
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 83.49%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLTL
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0
Club Friendly
15.08.18	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	1:4
German Bundesliga
10.03.18	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	6:0
21.10.17	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	0:1
25.02.17	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	8:0
24.09.16	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	0:1
22.01.16	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	1:2

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