Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	8	6	1.3	Watch
	9.3	6.4	1.27	Watch
	9.56	6.49	1.3
	9.57	6.52	1.29	Watch
	8	5.5	1.3
	8.7	6.4	1.34	Watch
	9	5.75	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.88 ↑ (8.17)	6.15 (6.15)	1.3 (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
10.8%

Draw
15.6%

Bayern Munich
73.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

15.4%

73%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.7%

15.5%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	9.5%	83.3%

Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Bayern (2.85) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

AH +2 - Hamburg (1.62) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 3.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.06% – 94.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Bayern (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 11. Konigsdorffer R.	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. 45. Pavlovic A. 17. Olise M. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 37. Lemke L. 39. Megeed O. 17. Omari W. 10. Pherai I. 14. Philippe R. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 25. Torunarigha J.	20. Bischof T. 23. Boey S. 14. Diaz L. 8. Goretzka L. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 10. Musiala J. 4. Tah J. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Polzin M.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Remberg N. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Vieira F. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Karl L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
46', 1 - 2, Diaz L. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
53', 2 - 2, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
55', Muheim M. 🟨,
57', Kim Min-Jae 🟨,
59', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
65', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
65', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Tah J. ↑,
74', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
74', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
75', Lokonga A. S. 🟨,
85', Vieira F. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
85', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Pherai I. ↑,
86', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
87', Kane H. 🟨,
90+3', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
90+5', Olise M. 🟨,
90+10', Capaldo N. 🟨,
90+10', Kimmich J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bayern is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Suspended) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury) Sahiti E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bayern: Guerreiro R. (Calf Injury) Laimer K. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Balde F. (Injury) Downs D. (Injury) Glatzel R. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 8:72. (average 0.4:4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:28. (average 0.5:2.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 79.95%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLTL
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0
Club Friendly
15.08.18	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	1:4
German Bundesliga
10.03.18	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	6:0
21.10.17	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	0:1
25.02.17	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	8:0
24.09.16	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	0:1
22.01.16	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	1:2

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