Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Philips Stadion (Eindhoven)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	PSV Eindhoven		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.5	1.62
	4.4	4.5	1.65
	5.05	4.75	1.6
	4.84	4.65	1.66
	4.81	4.78	1.63	Watch
	4.5	4.2	1.6
	4.85	4.59	1.65
	4.75	4.5	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↓ (6.5)	4.56 ↓ (5.08)	1.63 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PSV Eindhoven
20.2%

Draw
21%

Bayern Munich
58.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.9%

19.1%

66%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2%

18.2%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in PSV Eindhoven's performance.

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with PSV Eindhoven that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.2%	4.4%	82.4%

PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Bayern (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - PSV (2.31) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -1.25 - Bayern (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - PSV (3.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (56 of 68 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.29% – 91.41%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (29 of 36 users predict this - 80.56%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 10 - 23.3%). Bayern (votes: 33 - 76.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Kovar M. (G) 8. Dest S. 22. Schouten J. (C) 4. Obispo A. 17. Mauro Junior 10. Wanner P. 34. Saibari I. 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I.	40. Urbig J. (G) 20. Bischof T. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 21. Ito H. 6. Kimmich J. (C) 45. Pavlovic A. 42. Karl L. 10. Musiala J. 14. Diaz L. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
19. Bajraktarevic E. 11. Driouech C. 31. Fernandez N. 6. Flamingo R. 39. Nagalo A. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 24. Schiks N. (G) 25. Sildillia K. 51. Smolenaars T. (G) 50. Verkooijen N.	23. Boey S. 38. Chavez F. 19. Davies A. 7. Gnabry S. 8. Goretzka L. 9. Kane H. 30. Kiala C. 36. Mike W. 1. Neuer M. (G) 17. Olise M. 26. Ulreich S. (G)
Coaches
Bosz P.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Perisic I. 🟨,
24', Upamecano D. 🟨,
35', Schouten J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Man D. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Musiala J. ⚽, Karl L. (A),
62', Jackson N. ↓, Kane H. ↑,
62', Karl L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
62', Upamecano D. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
62', Musiala J. ↓, Gnabry S. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Saibari I. ⚽, Til G. (A),
82', Kompany V. 🟨,
82', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
83', Til G. 🟨,
83', Kimmich J. 🟨,
84', 1 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Diaz L. (A),
85', Bischof T. ↓, Boey S. ↑,
86', Mauro Junior 🟨,
90+4', Mauro Junior 🟨,

Preview

Bayern is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in PSV: Boadu M. (Muscle Injury) Gasiorowski Y. (Yellow Cards) Olij N. (Groin Injury) Pepi R. (Forearm injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Illness) Guerreiro R. (Calf Injury) Kim Min-Jae (Red Card) Laimer K. (Calf Injury) Stanisic J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in PSV: Salah-Eddine A. (Injury) Til G. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, PSV won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, PSV won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Bayern Munich: 11.3% PSV: 0.66%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	5:0	5	3
19	PSV	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven	3:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Fortuna Sittard - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	Den Bosch - PSV Eindhoven	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Excelsior	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
01.11.16	PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich	1:2
19.10.16	Bayern Munich - PSV Eindhoven	4:1

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