Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: London Stadium (London)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	West Ham United		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.1	4.5
	1.82	3.9	4
	1.72	4.1	4.6
	1.75	4.35	4.58
	1.71	4.07	4.76	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.2
	1.75	4.32	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.54)	4.11 ↑ (3.62)	4.48 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

West Ham United
55.2%

Draw
23.4%

Leeds United
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

27.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

29.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

West Ham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in West Ham United's performance.

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leeds United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for West Ham United than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with West Ham United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	9%	7.7%

West Ham United - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 77 users predict this event. West Ham will win (votes: 65 - 84.4%). Leeds will win (votes: 6 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 7.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for West Ham: 76.3% – 92.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.62) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.25 - West Ham (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Leeds (3.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): West Ham United will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. West Ham (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Leeds (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hermansen M. (G) 2. Walker-Peters K. 15. Mavropanos K. 4. Disasi A. 12. Diouf M. 28. Soucek T. 18. Fernandes M. 20. Bowen J. (C) 19. Pablo 7. Summerville C. 11. Castellanos T.	26. Darlow K. (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 24. Justin J. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 14. Nmecha L.
Substitutes
23. Areola A. (G) 55. Kante M. 3. Kilman M. 21. Lamadrid K. 27. Magassa S. 32. Potts F. 30. Scarles O. 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 9. Wilson C.	23. Bornauw S. 40. Buonanotte F. 25. Byram S. 47. Chadwick-Chaplin R. 51. Cresswell A. 29. Gnonto W. 7. James D. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 10. Piroe J.
Coaches
Espirito Santo N.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Bijol J. 🟨,
25', Aaronson B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Pablo ↓, Wilson C. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Castellanos T. ⚽, Bowen J. (A),
69', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
70', Bijol J. ↓, James D. ↑,
78', Bogle J. ↓, Buonanotte F. ↑,
78', Tanaka A. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Bowen J. ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
88', Ampadu E. 🟨,
88', Castellanos T. ↓, Kante M. ↑,
90+1', Aaronson B. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Wilson C. ⚽, Summerville C. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, West Ham won 1.

Recent form of West Ham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leeds's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, West Ham is the team to beat.

There will not play in West Ham: Fabianski L. (Back Injury) Traore A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Gruev I. (Knee Injury) Gudmundsson G. (Hamstring Injury) Longstaff S. (Hernia) Okafor N. (Calf Injury) Stach A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bogle J. (Hamstring Injury) Buonanotte F. (Hamstring Injury) Struijk P. (Hip Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, West Ham won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, West Ham won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- West Ham United
English Premier League
17.05.26	Newcastle United - West Ham United	3:1 ✺
10.05.26	West Ham United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Brentford - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	West Ham United - Everton	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Crystal Palace - West Ham United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWT
- Leeds United
English Premier League
17.05.26	Leeds United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
11.05.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Leeds United - Burnley	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.04.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
22.04.26	Bournemouth - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
05.04.26	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:3 penalties
English Premier League
24.10.25	Leeds United - West Ham United	2:1
21.05.23	West Ham United - Leeds United	3:1
04.01.23	Leeds United - West Ham United	2:2
16.01.22	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:3
English FA Cup
09.01.22	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:0
English Premier League
25.09.21	Leeds United - West Ham United	1:2

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