Match Info

Premier League - Round 35

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Solh Sports 1
Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
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Chile	Disney+
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
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France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
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Hungary	Match 4
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Romania	Voyo
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Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
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Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Leeds United		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	8.5
	1.4	5	7
	1.42	4.65	8.2
	1.43	4.9	8.5
	1.4	4.99	8.6	Watch
	1.36	4.6	7.5
	1.41	4.85	8.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.44)	4.82 ↑ (4.56)	8.14 ↑ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
68.4%

Draw
19.9%

Burnley
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

20.9%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

20%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.6%	16.9%	8.5%

Leeds United - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 44 - 74.6%). Burnley will win (votes: 5 - 8.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 63.5% – 85.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Leeds (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Darlow K. (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 24. Justin J. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 12. Humphreys B. 3. Hartman Q. 17. Tchaouna L. 29. Laurent J. 20. Ward-Prowse J. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. 23. Bornauw S. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J.	25. Amdouni Z. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 16. Florentino 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 8. Ugochukwu L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Jackson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Stach A. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
27', Struijk P. 🟨,
35', Humphreys B. 🟨,
37', Tchaouna L. 🟨,
40', Rodon J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', Calvert-Lewin D. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Okafor N. ⚽, Bogle J. (A),
54', Laurent J. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
56', 3 - 0, Calvert-Lewin D. ⚽,
65', Okafor N. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
65', Hartman Q. ↓, Lucas Pires ↑,
65', Ward-Prowse J. ↓, Florentino ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Tchaouna L. ⚽, Anthony J. (A),
72', Stach A. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
72', Tanaka A. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
75', Ampadu E. 🟨,
76', Humphreys B. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
76', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
88', Mejbri H. 🟨,
90+4', Bogle J. ↓, James D. ↑,
90+4', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Burnley is Relegated to Championship

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.

Leeds is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Burnley has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Leeds has had a series of away games.

In this match, Leeds is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: Gruev I. (Knee Injury) Gudmundsson G. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Mejbri H. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.2:0.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 66.05%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English FA Cup
26.04.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
22.04.26	Bournemouth - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
13.04.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
05.04.26	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 LTWWW
- Burnley FC
English Premier League
22.04.26	Burnley - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	4:1 ✺
11.04.26	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Fulham - Burnley	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.10.25	Burnley - Leeds United	2:0
English League Championship
27.01.25	Burnley - Leeds United	0:0
14.09.24	Leeds United - Burnley	0:1
English Premier League
02.01.22	Leeds United - Burnley	3:1
29.08.21	Burnley - Leeds United	1:1
15.05.21	Burnley - Leeds United	0:4
27.12.20	Leeds United - Burnley	1:0

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