Match Info

AUSTRALIA: A-League - Round 15

Date: 17 January 2025, Friday

Location: Ironbark Fields (Melbourne)

Referee: Bavcar A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	U-NEXT
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App


	Western United		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.2	4	Watch
	1.78	4	3.8
	1.75	4.2	4
	1.76	4.27	4.03	Watch
	1.75	4	4
	1.77	4.25	4	Watch
	1.75	4.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.93)	4.16 ↑ (3.78)	3.98 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western United
53.6%

Draw
22.7%

Newcastle Jets
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

24.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

24%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western United's performance.

Newcastle Jets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western United than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	26.7%	20%

Western United - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Western United will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Newcastle will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Western United: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Sutton M. (G) 13. Russell T. 6. Imai T. 30. Leonard D. 17. Garuccio B. 77. Danzaki R. 32. Thurgate A. 23. Bozinovski R. 20. Walatee A. 19. Botic N. 9. Ibusuki H.	1. Scott R. (G) 27. Grimaldi N. 17. Grozos K. 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 19. Timmins C. 37. Bayliss L. 39. Aquilina T. 6. Scarcella M. 13. Taylor C. 22. Gibson B.
Substitutes
10. Grimaldi M. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 44. Lauton J. 7. Najjarine R. 24. Ruhs M. 37. Vickery L. 22. Vidmar K.	45. Bracco C. 28. Dobson W. 21. James N. (G) 9. Rose L. 44. Van Dorssen B. 29. Vidic J. 10. Wellissol
Coaches
Aloisi J.	Stanton R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Danzaki R. ⚽,
37', 2 - 0, Botic N. ⚽, Garuccio B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Grimaldi N. ↓, Dobson W. ↑,
46', Scarcella M. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
46', Walatee A. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
54', 3 - 0, Botic N. ⚽, Bozinovski R. (A),
58', 3 - 1, Rose L. ⚽,
64', Botic N. ↓, Ruhs M. ↑,
69', Bayliss L. 🟨,
76', Ibusuki H. ↓, Vickery L. ↑,
76', Leonard D. ↓, Vidmar K. ↑,
77', Ruhs M. 🟨,
81', Bozinovski R. ↓, Lauton J. ↑,
82', Gibson B. ↓, Wellissol ↑,
90+4', Vidmar K. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Western United won 2.

Western United is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Newcastle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Western United have a series of guest games.

In this match Western United is a favorite.

There will not play in Western United: Kaddour K. (Knee Injury) Pasquali S. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Fryer O. (Knee Injury) Ingham D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Western United: Donachie J. (Calf Injury) Shamoon C. A. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Western United to win the game is with odds 1.78.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Western United won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15:14 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Western United won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western United
Australian A-League
10.01.25	Melbourne Victory - Western United	3:4 ✺
07.01.25	Melbourne City - Western United	2:0 ✺
03.01.25	Perth Glory - Western United	2:3 ✺
29.12.24	Western United - Brisbane Roar	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Auckland FC - Western United	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WLWWW
- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
12.01.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	1:3 ✺
07.01.25	Brisbane Roar - Newcastle Jets	0:1 ✺
04.01.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	2:2 ✺
27.12.24	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Perth Glory - Newcastle Jets	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian Cup
24.07.24	Newcastle Jets - Western United	4:1
Australian A-League
16.02.24	Western United - Newcastle Jets	2:0
30.12.23	Newcastle Jets - Western United	2:0
10.11.23	Western United - Newcastle Jets	0:1
25.02.23	Newcastle Jets - Western United	1:3
15.01.23	Western United - Newcastle Jets	1:1
04.05.22	Newcastle Jets - Western United	1:1

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