Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 21

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Willem II		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.5	1.65	Watch
	5.5	3.6	1.68
	5.4	3.55	1.7	Watch
	5.89	3.62	1.69
	5.57	3.6	1.69	Watch
	5.5	3.5	1.67
	5.25	3.74	1.69	Watch
	5.4	3.55	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.53 ↑ (4.37)	3.58 ↓ (3.9)	1.68 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
17.2%

Draw
26.5%

AZ Alkmaar
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

24.3%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

24.3%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	21.4%	57.1%

Willem II - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). AZ will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 25. Tirpan M. 33. St. Jago T. 30. Behounek R. 4. Schouten E. (C) 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 21. Ahmed Fatah A. 16. Meerveld R. 6. Lambert B. 14. Sandra C. 18. Bokila J.	41. Zoet J. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 5. Penetra 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 18. Wolfe D. M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 8. Clasie J. 10. Mijnans S. 17. Addai J. 9. Parrott T. 23. Lahdo M.
Substitutes
7. Doodeman N. 17. Joosten P. 77. Kaygin D. 11. Kehrer E. 48. Mathijsen J. 22. Nizet R. 41. Schut M. (G) 9. Vaesen K. 24. van den Berg C. (G)	14. Belic K. 28. Buurmeester Z. 31. Deen D. (G) 22. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 30. Kasius D. 21. Poku E. 24. Schouten L. 26. Smit K. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Maes P.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', Ahmed Fatah A. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Parrott T. (Pen),
30', Lambert B. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Mijnans S. ⚽, Lahdo M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lambert B. ↓, Vaesen K. ↑,
64', Addai J. ↓, Smit K. ↑,
64', Parrott T. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
74', Sigurgeirsson R. ↓, Nizet R. ↑,
74', Sandra C. ↓, Joosten P. ↑,
79', Lahdo M. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
85', Bokila J. 🟨,
85', Ahmed Fatah A. ↓, Kaygin D. ↑,
85', Tirpan M. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
90+3', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
90+3', Mijnans S. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
90+3', Bokila J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Willem II won 1.

Willem II is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches AZ is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Willem II could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AZ is a favorite.

There will not play in Willem II: Bosch J. (Yellow Cards) Lachkar A. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Westerveld S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Mathieu D. (Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Willem II won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 26:29 (average 1.3:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Willem II won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:11 (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
26.01.25	Waalwijk - Willem II	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Willem II - Feyenoord	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Twente - Willem II	6:2 ✺
22.12.24	Willem II - NEC Nijmegen	4:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.12.24	Noordwijk - Willem II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTLWL
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Ferencvárosi - AZ Alkmaar	4:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Roma	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.25	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.11.24	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	1:2
20.03.22	Willem II - AZ Alkmaar	2:2
18.12.21	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	4:1
03.04.21	Willem II - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
20.12.20	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	5:3
18.01.20	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	1:3
06.10.19	Willem II - AZ Alkmaar	1:1

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