Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 23 January 2025, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Peljto I. (Bih)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	SuperSport 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	VOOsport World 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 3
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	RTL+, Sky Sport Mix
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN Sports 3, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	SportsMax Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 3
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App


	AZ Alkmaar		Roma

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2.1
	3.6	3.4	2.05
	3.7	3.25	2.12	Watch
	3.79	3.46	2.08
	3.76	3.55	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.4	2.05
	3.92	3.36	2.09
	3.75	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↑ (3)	3.38 ↓ (3.6)	2.09 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
25.7%

Draw
28.4%

Roma
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

26.6%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28.9%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.6%	31.8%	57.6%

AZ Alkmaar - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 6 - 9.4%). Roma will win (votes: 37 - 57.8%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 32.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 45.7% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. 8. Clasie J. (C) 21. Poku E. 35. Meerdink M. 23. Lahdo M.	99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 15. Hummels M. 5. Ndicka E. 3. Angelino 17. Kone M. 16. Paredes L. (C) 61. Pisilli N. 21. Dybala P. 11. Dovbyk A. 56. Saelemaekers A.
Substitutes
17. Addai J. 14. Belic K. 28. Buurmeester Z. 37. Daal R. 22. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 4. Martins Indi B. 9. Parrott T. 26. Smit K. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 41. Zoet J. (G)	12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 92. El Shaarawy S. 22. Hermoso M. 23. Mancini G. 73. Marcaccini A. (G) 7. Pellegrini Lo. 14. Shomurodov E. 18. Soule M. 59. Zalewski N.
Coaches
Martens M.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Dovbyk A. 🟨,
35', Hummels M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dovbyk A. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
53', Meerdink M. 🟨,
62', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Belic K. ↑,
62', Lahdo M. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
63', Goes W. 🟨,
71', Saelemaekers A. 🟨,
72', Meerdink M. ↓, Parrott T. ↑,
72', Poku E. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
74', Saelemaekers A. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, Wolfe D. M. (A),
85', Paredes L. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
90+2', Belic K. 🟨,

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

AZ could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Roma will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in AZ: Westerveld S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Cristante B. (Ankle Injury) Pellegrini Lo. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Kasius D. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.25	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.25	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	1:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TWTWW
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
17.01.25	Roma - Genoa	3:1 ✺
12.01.25	Bologna - Roma	2:2 ✺
05.01.25	Roma - Lazio	2:0 ✺
29.12.24	Milan - Roma	1:1 ✺
22.12.24	Roma - Parma	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWTW

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