Match Info

GERMANY: BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 34

Date: 27 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Cortus B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Nova Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
World	beIN Sports Connect


	Wolfsburg		Hertha Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.29	6	9.5	Watch
	1.29	6.25	8.75	Watch
	1.27	6.25	9.5
	1.31	6	9
	1.29	6.4	9.22
	1.25	5	7.5	Watch
	1.28	6.2	9.2	Watch
	1.3	6.6	9.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.47)	6.09 ↑ (4.61)	8.98 ↑ (6.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
73.8%

Draw
15.6%

Hertha Berlin
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

20.5%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

20.2%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wolfsburg's performance.

Hertha Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wolfsburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hertha Berlin than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	4.2%	8.3%

Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: Wolfsburg will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Casteels K. (G) 3. Bornauw S. 29. Guilavogui J. (C) 5. van de Ven M. 20. Baku R. 22. Nmecha F. 27. Arnold M. 31. Gerhardt Y. 16. Kaminski J. 39. Wimmer P. 23. Wind J.	12. Ernst T. (G) 16. Kenny J. 41. Klemens P. 20. Kempf M. O. 21. Plattenhardt M. (C) 29. Tousart L. 8. Serdar S. 10. Boetius J-P. 7. Niederlechner F. 23. Richter M. 24. Ngankam J.
Substitutes
8. Cozza N. 2. Fischer K. 38. Franjic B. 33. Marmoush O. 40. Paredes K. 18. Pejcinovic D. 12. Pervan P. (G) 32. Svanberg M. 7. Waldschmidt L.	1. Christensen O. (G) 49. da Silva Kiala J. 42. Eitschberger J. 30. Maza I. 2. Pekarik P. 3. Rogel A. 44. Rolke T. 39. Scherhant D. 35. Stange V.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Dardai P.

Preview

Wolfsburg has the most likely position - 7 (54.34%), project points - 51, currently - 49, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

Hertha has the most likely position - 18 (100%), project points - 27, currently - 26, already of relegated.

This event has quality 61, very small importance 0, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Wolfsburg won 3.

Recent matches Wolfsburg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hertha is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Wolfsburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Wolfsburg is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Lacroix M. (Shoulder Injury) Nmecha L. (Knee Injury) Paulo Otavio (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Hertha: Boateng K. (Knee Injury) Dardai M. (Muscle Injury) Kanga W. (Muscle Injury) Mittelstadt M. (Yellow Cards) Nsona K. (Knee Injury) Rogel A. (Muscle Injury) Uremovic F. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Hertha: Cigerci T. (Calf Injury) Kempf M. O. (Ribs Injury)

Last 21 head-to-head matches Wolfsburg won 11 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 40-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Wolfsburg won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
19.05.23	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	2:0 ✺
13.05.23	Wolfsburg - Hoffenheim	2:1 ✺
07.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	6:0 ✺
30.04.23	Wolfsburg - Mainz	3:0 ✺
22.04.23	Bochum - Wolfsburg	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWW
- Hertha Berlin
German Bundesliga
20.05.23	Hertha Berlin - Bochum	1:1 ✺
12.05.23	Köln - Hertha Berlin	5:2 ✺
06.05.23	Hertha Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
30.04.23	Bayern Munich - Hertha Berlin	2:0 ✺
22.04.23	Hertha Berlin - Werder Bremen	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.01.23	Hertha Berlin - Wolfsburg	0:5
15.01.22	Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin	0:0
21.08.21	Hertha Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2
27.02.21	Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin	2:0
01.11.20	Hertha Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:1
25.01.20	Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin	1:2
25.08.19	Hertha Berlin - Wolfsburg	0:3

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