Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.7	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.76	5.61
	1.22	6.33	11.81	Watch
	1.56	4.65	5.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.48)	4.99 ↑ (4.87)	6.76 ↑ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
65.9%

Draw
19.6%

Wolfsburg
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

19.5%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

18.9%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.9%	4.1%	4.1%

Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Wolfsburg (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (67 of 73 users predict this - 91.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.48% – 98.08%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 30 users predict this - 96.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 29 - 93.5%). Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Maehle J. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 7. Skov Olsen A. 10. Majer L. 39. Wimmer P. 9. Amoura M.
Substitutes
7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 37. Campbell C. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S.	11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 24. Eriksen C. 26. Kumbedi S. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 32. Svanberg M. 23. Wind J. 25. Zehnter A.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Simonis P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
60', Majer L. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
60', Vini Souza ↓, Eriksen C. ↑,
65', Beier M. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
73', Wimmer P. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
77', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
77', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
81', Maehle J. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
90+2', Sabitzer M. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Wolfsburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of away games.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Lindstrom J. (Groin Injury) Paredes K. (Foot Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Vavro D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Silva F. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 52:9. (average 2.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:2. (average 3.2:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWTW
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hemelingen - Wolfsburg	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	4:0
22.12.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ET
German Bundesliga
17.02.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0
07.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	6:0
08.11.22	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:0

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