Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	18:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	14:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	03:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	19:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	19:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	14:30	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	13:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	14:30	Disney+
China	01:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	12:30	Disney+
Croatia	19:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	19:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports Prime
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	19:30	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	17:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	23:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	20:30	Sport 2
Italy	19:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	22:30	Medianet
Malta	19:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	11:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	19:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	19:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Peru	12:30	Disney+
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	18:30	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	20:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Voyo
Slovenia	19:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana
Suriname	14:30	SCCN
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	20:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.7	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.76	5.61
	1.22	6.33	11.81	Watch
	1.56	4.65	5.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.48)	4.99 ↑ (4.87)	6.76 ↑ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
65.9%

Draw
19.6%

Wolfsburg
14.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64%

19.5%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

18.4%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.9%	4.1%	4.1%

Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Wolfsburg (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (67 of 73 users predict this - 91.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.48% – 98.08%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 30 users predict this - 96.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 29 - 93.5%). Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Maehle J. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 7. Skov Olsen A. 10. Majer L. 39. Wimmer P. 9. Amoura M.
Substitutes
7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 37. Campbell C. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S.	11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 24. Eriksen C. 26. Kumbedi S. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 32. Svanberg M. 23. Wind J. 25. Zehnter A.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Simonis P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
60', Majer L. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
60', Vini Souza ↓, Eriksen C. ↑,
65', Beier M. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
73', Wimmer P. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
77', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
77', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
81', Maehle J. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
90+2', Sabitzer M. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Wolfsburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of away games.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Lindstrom J. (Groin Injury) Paredes K. (Foot Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Vavro D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Silva F. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 52:9. (average 2.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:2. (average 3.2:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWTW
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hemelingen - Wolfsburg	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	4:0
22.12.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ET
German Bundesliga
17.02.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0
07.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	6:0
08.11.22	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:0

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