What is the expert prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Wolfsburg?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Borussia Dortmund vs Wolfsburg. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Wolfsburg Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, September 21, 2025)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.7	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.76	5.61
	1.22	6.33	11.81	Watch
	1.56	4.65	5.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.48)	4.99 ↑ (4.87)	6.76 ↑ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
65.9%

Draw
19.6%

Wolfsburg
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

19.5%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

18.9%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.9%	4.1%	4.1%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Wolfsburg (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (67 of 73 users predict this - 91.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.48% – 98.08%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 30 users predict this - 96.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 29 - 93.5%). Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Maehle J. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 7. Skov Olsen A. 10. Majer L. 39. Wimmer P. 9. Amoura M.
Substitutes
7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 37. Campbell C. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S.	11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 24. Eriksen C. 26. Kumbedi S. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 32. Svanberg M. 23. Wind J. 25. Zehnter A.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Simonis P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
60', Majer L. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
60', Vini Souza ↓, Eriksen C. ↑,
65', Beier M. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
73', Wimmer P. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
77', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
77', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
81', Maehle J. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
90+2', Sabitzer M. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Wolfsburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of away games.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Lindstrom J. (Groin Injury) Paredes K. (Foot Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Vavro D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Silva F. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 52:9. (average 2.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:2. (average 3.2:0.2).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWTW
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hemelingen - Wolfsburg	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	4:0
22.12.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ET
German Bundesliga
17.02.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0
07.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	6:0
08.11.22	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:0

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