Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.5	Watch
	2.62	3.7	2.52	Watch
	2.7	3.77	2.58
	4.71	4.51	1.59	Watch
	2.7	3.7	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.64)	3.86 ↑ (3.65)	2.35 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
32.2%

Draw
25.7%

RB Leipzig
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

26.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

26.2%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	20.8%	62.5%

Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 43.1% – 81.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 12.5%). RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Wolfsburg (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Wolfsburg (1.54) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 4 - 33.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Maehle J. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 9. Amoura M. 32. Svanberg M. 39. Wimmer P. 23. Wind J.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 20. Ouedraogo A. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 49. Diomande Y.
Substitutes
11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 24. Eriksen C. 31. Gerhardt Y. 26. Kumbedi S. 10. Majer L. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 25. Zehnter A.	6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 11. Harder C. 44. Kampl K. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 7. Nusa A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 36. Werner T.
Coaches
Simonis P.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Bakayoko J. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
24', Diomande Y. 🟨,
45', Orban W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wimmer P. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
58', Arnold M. 🟨,
64', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
70', Svanberg M. ↓, Eriksen C. ↑,
70', Wind J. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
79', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
79', Diomande Y. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
90', Koulierakis K. 🟨,
90', Baumgartner C. (Pen),
90+1', Vini Souza ↓, Majer L. ↑,
90+1', Fischer K. ↓, Zehnter A. ↑,
90+3', Bakayoko J. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,
90+3', Baumgartner C. ↓, Werner T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 2.

Wolfsburg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

RB Leipzig is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Lindstrom J. (Groin Injury) Paredes K. (Foot Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Skov Olsen A. (Injury) Vavro D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Finkgrafe M. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Knee Injury) Schlager X. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:33. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hemelingen - Wolfsburg	0:9 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTTWW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Sandhausen - RB Leipzig	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.04.25	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	2:3
German DFB Pokal
26.02.25	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	1:0
German Bundesliga
30.11.24	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	1:5
13.04.24	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	3:0
25.11.23	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	2:1
German DFB Pokal
31.10.23	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	1:0
German Bundesliga
18.02.23	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	0:3

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